"We don't actually know that movesets are random. Let's gather what we DO know and what hasn't been ruled out."

#PokemonGO: Nothing is known to affect moveset. But we are far from knowing that they're actually random.We should be really careful about saying "movesets are random," because it's exactly the kind of thing that, if wrong, tends to not be corrected once its widely accepted: it discourages further testing.Being able to predict movesets would be huge, so I think this really needs further investigation. We can start by actually gathering what we know at this point and the hypotheses that haven't been ruled out.Evidence:Even pokemon that could keep the same moves often don't.If two people catch the same spawn, they get pokemon with the same IVs, moves, height, weight, and, if they're at the same trainer level, pokemon level and so CP. But they can end up with different movesets once evolved.IVs and pokemon level are carried over during evolution.Weight and height are rerolled upon evolution.There is some evidence that the random number generator used for weight and height is not especially random: one user evolved 56 pokemon during a lucky egg and got almost all XS weights and normal heights.There is also evidence that the random number generator used to determine IVs at "birth" is not especially random: there's a correlation between IVs and pokedex number.Hatched pokemon seem to roll 3 times for each IV and take the highest.There are undiscovered easter eggs.(Just to get this one out of the way.) There are rumors that Hanke said movesets dictate evolved movesets at SDCC, but he actually did not know the answer.This is, AFAIK, pretty much all we have. I don't think any systematic statistical work has been done.Please tell me anything I'm missing!From this, I think we can conclude:IVs, height, weight, pokemon level, CP, and pre-evolution moves do not determine final moveset.If a PRNG is involved with move selection, it may not be as random as it should be.If some pokemon get a moveset boost, it could work by giving them multiple rolls and then choosing the best.Things that haven't been ruled out:IVs, level, CP, or pre-evolution moves could have a probabilistic effect on final moveset.For example, if a move can be retained, it could first roll to decide between keeping the move and rerolling it—which would mean having a move increases the chance but doesn't guarantee ending up with it post-evolution.A high trainer/pokemon level could increase the probability of certain moves.Any connection between gym experience and final moveset (pet theory—working on getting some data on this one).Unintentional but useful not-so-random-PRNG effects.Easter eggs related to naming (/u/Jin_Yamato)Easter eggs related to Pokemon TCG, especially cards with 2 attacks. (/u/Leodamius)Other easter eggs?Suggestive anecdotes:/u/orangesndlimes and friends evolved 3 differently sourced magikarp within ~1 second of each other, all got the same moveset—Dragon Breath, Dragon Pulse./u/doublefelix921 is collecting data here on pidgey/weedle/caterpie evolutions to look at whether starting moves affect the probability of getting different evolved moves. Please add any you have!What evidence am I missing? Uneliminated hypotheses that should be considered? I'll update this with anything anyone can contribute. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2aJYZZD