"Finally RNG - what does it mean for keeping / grinding pokemon you caught? Lower your expectations !!"

#PokemonGO: So it finally seems that the distribution of all IV's are random now. Silphroad Research itself published some graphs with the average attack values now around the expected mean. I tried to go a step further - I looked at the distribution of appraisals wonders (82%+ IV, Mystic/Best - Can Battle with the best/Instinct, Can accmplish Anything/Valor), caught my attention (66%+ IV, above average (50%+ IV), not likely to make headways (50%+ IV), the best stat - HP, A, D or a combination as well as incredible (15), impressed (13-14), trending (8-12) and not out of the norm. I guess you can tell by now I'm a Mystic player. These are the values you get from the appraisal. I did this for a total of 114 pokemon all caught after the update. My own level was 25 when I started and the last 20 or 30 might have been caught on level 26.The data is available here: http://ift.tt/2cuoknY will say - that isn't enough data. Well - after around 60 pokemon I had HP with a p-value of 1.7% - well significant - being the best stat well above the theory. That value disappeared slowly when more data was added - but it shows that good signals can be seen even in smaller datasets.I will carry on collecting data - but to me it is sufficient that it seems to confirm brazenly non-RNG artefacts are left (there still might be smaller issues).But back to the title - there are 4096 combinations of IV with 165 that are a wonder (or if you are Instinct - can battle with the best / Valor can accomplish anything). Therefore the chance to catch a pokemon with a wonder (82.2%+ IV) is 165/4096 or roughly 4% (1 out of 25).I generated a small table that gives you an idea of IV and likelyhood. The numbers are for 82% or better, 84% or better etc.Sum of IV, %IV, Combinations, Chance37 82% 165 4.03%38 84% 120 2.93%39 87% 84 2.05%40 89% 56 1.37%41 91% 35 0.85%42 93% 20 0.49%43 96% 10 0.24%44 98% 4 0.10%45 100% 1 0.02%So I caught 250 Pidgeys. That means I should expect around 10 of them to have been wonders - and I can expect a single one with 93% or better.It doesn't stop there - add in movesets and you want a Pidgeot with Wing Attack / Hurricane and you can multiply the number needed by a further 6 to get one.So with 250 Pidgeys I could expect 10 wonders, evolving all of these I expect around 2 with Wing Attack/Hurricane.But this leaves out of the equation the level of the Pokemon. Being level 25 there is a 50% chance that the Pidgey I catch is level 12 or less. So it truly needs to be 100% or close or I likely won't bother.A few numbers - how many pokemon you need on average to get that elusive one:The perfect 100% Pokemon, caught at you level or 1 level below (assuming level 30+), with the perfect move set4096 * 15 * 6 = 1 out of 360 000A 90% plus IV pokemon with one of the two best movesets and caught at > half your level117 * 3 * 2 = 1 out of 700A wonder pokemon (82%+) at level 20+ with any moveset25 * 3 = one out of 75 pokemonAll these great Eevees, Dratinis, Magicarps which came with a nearly guranteed 15 in attack. They slashed the numbers needed to get a good pokemon by a factor of 16. These times are over.Off course there is always the alternative of eggs. They have a 62.5% chance of producing a wonder pokemon (82%+ IV). There is a reason that 8 out of my first 11 pokemon I still have are out of an egg. Including a 100% Eevee level 1 turned into a Vaporeon who is now max level with moves that are ok. Or my 100% Butterfree - who has crap moves - but who cares with a Butterfree 1122 what moves he has. Oh and I have a 98% Pidgeot level 20 with Wing Attack / Hurricane - will have to wait when I have dust available - but he is on my list to power up eventually. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2cXHmcI