"Detailed Analysis of 280 Level-10 Gyms in the San Francisco Bay Area"

#PokemonGO: Much has been written about the current gym meta, but much of it is anecdotal though based on solid collective experience. I thought I could bring some quantitative data on bear on this issue. I originally started collecting data in November but the CP rebalancing caused me to abandon the project yet I decided to pursue it again after the New Year's event. The 280 gyms were sampled between January 2 and February 6.I should preface my analysis with some words on sampling. I did not systematically survey all existing gyms but only documented those visible in my lines of sight from major freeways, thoroughfares, and rail and bus lines. I have thus surely missed out on gyms in much more remote locations. Also the same gym location was occasionally sampled more than once, but only if there was a full gym clearance between samples. So the same gym might have a Mystic lineup one week and a Valor lineup the next. What was left out of the data were lineups that were shifted by booting out the bottom defender. Some gyms held stagnant over many weeks and these were sampled only once. Also left out of the data were lvl 10 gyms that held empty slots.To even out local differences, I endeavored to sample a wide geographical area. I sought out gyms in four Bay Area counties: Alameda, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara. The majority (N=112, 40.0%) were from San Mateo county, followed next by Santa Clara county (N=87, 31.1%), San Francisco county (N=41, 14.6%), and Alameda county (N=40, 14.3%). Over half of the gyms were held by Team Mystic (N=145, 51.8%), almost a third bore the color of Team Valor (N=85, 30.3%), and only 17.9% (N=50) of the gyms belonged to Team Instinct. This breakdown is similar to the proportions documented in earlier studies. Mystic was the dominant team everywhere but there were neighborhoods where the other teams reigned supreme. Valor has strongholds in Redwood City-San Carlos and Laurel Heights-Richmond District, while Instinct is dominant in parts of Palo Alto and Daly City-South San Francisco. These neighborhoods existed prior to the November gym shakeup. Distribution of Pokemon Across Gym LevelsThe sample contains 2,800 Pokemon. Here are the proportions of each species, with the highest respective gym level reached: PokemonN (%)Highest Gym LevelDragonite1043 (37.3%)1Gyarados576 (20.6%)1Rhydon378 (13.5%)1Snorlax357 (12.8%)1Vaporeon289 (10.3%)1Arcanine41 (1.5%)2Exeggutor33 (1.1%)2Lapras17 (0.6%)4Flareon12 (0.4%)5Alakazam8 (0.3%)4Golem7 (0.3%)4Machamp6 (0.2%)3Chansey4 (0.1%)9Venusaur3 (0.1%)7Gengar3 (0.1%)3Charizard2 (0.0%)5Pinsir2 (0.0%)10 There were also 19 other Pokemon that occurred only once in the sample: Poliwrath, Magmar, Kingler, Abra, Pidgey, Onix, Golduck, Tauros, Aerodactyl, Nidoqueen, Nidoking, Kangaskhan, Dratini, Horsea, Ditto, Jolteon, Blastoise, Weezing, and Wigglytuff. Poliwrath and Magmar were the highest ranking of these, occurring at level 8 (third from the bottom).It is not surprising that Dragonites accounted for over a third of all Pokemon placed in Bay Area gyms. What is somewhat stunning to see is that a whopping 71.4% of all gym defenders belong to just three Pokemon species: Dragonite, Gyarados, and Rhydon. When you add Snorlax to this elite group, this leaves less than 16% for added Pokemon diversity. Most surprising is the fact that Lapras, one of the best defenders behind Snorlax, totals only 17 out of 2,800 Pokemon placed in gyms, barely at 0.6%. The CP cap is one factor but another is the rarity not only of Lapras but also more importantly, Lapras candy. What is more, 6 out of the 17 Lapras are found on the bottom rung of the gym. Lapras will soon share the fate of Slowbro and Poliwrath with continued gym minimum CP creep.The following table displays the distribution of the 2,800 Pokemon in the sample across the ten gym levels: Pokemon10987654321Dragonite4349696978102114138171210Gyarados45666065716266644433Rhydon42384241514841303015Snorlax39423657423433332219Vaporeon4352533729292111113Exeggutor11843312010Arcanine19791110210Lapras6421211000All Other321456322200 (If you are viewing on iOS, the table might be prematurely cut off. To view the whole table, click here) An illuminating chart displaying these proportions can be viewed here. It shows that the proportions of the Big Five pokes are roughly even until about gym level 5 when the frequency of Dragonite begins to skyrocket. The increase of Dragonite in the upper levels far outpaces the decline of the other Pokemon. The much higher max CP of Dragonite makes it far and away the dominant Pokemon in the upper levels. The best defender Snorlax, which has a fairly high max CP but not high enough to meet Dragonite (and with a paucity of Snorlax candy), manages to account for only a meagre 6.8% of Pokemon at the top spot. With the San Francisco waterfront being a highly productive Dratini fishing spot, the sky is the limit for Dragonite. It would be interesting to compare this with a similar study in a desert biome where Dratini is far more scarce. Additional Details on Trainer CharacteristicsThe foregoing sheds light on Pokemon selected to defend gyms; what about their trainers? The following table reveals the differences between the ten gym levels in terms of average CP, average Trainer XP, average trainer level, and minimum trainer level: Gym LevelAverage CPAverage Trainer XPAverage Trainer LevelMinimum Trainer Level1024912,878,5183113927073,641,7863218827763,745,0273223728423,919,6883322628904,431,9203323529404,599,2143325429884,758,6073424330405,115,2683426231025,598,2143427131886,429,0183527 Average CP refers to the value obtained from averaging together all individual Pokemon CP for each respective level. In order to derive an average trainer level for each level, displayed level info must be converted into XP first. A lvl 30 trainer has, for instance, achieved 2,000,000 XP. The XP values used here however add 0.5 lvl to the trainer lvl displayed in the gym. The reason for this is that lvl 30, to continue using this example, actually covers a range between 2,000,000 and 2,500,000 XP, so 30.5 is the relevant median where one would expect a roughly equal distribution of lvl 30 trainers on either side. This figure is used to produce the average trainer XP, which is then converted into average trainer level. This may be compared to the minimum trainer level documented for each gym level.These data show that the lowest rung of gyms averages to 2491 CP, with the miminum trainer level of 13 and an average trainer level of 31. Although low level trainers may still participate in the gym scene, the soft-cap level of 30 is still not high enough to meet the average of trainers at the bottom of gyms. The CP value of 2491 is also above the lvl 30 soft cap max CP of most pokes beyond the Big Five like 2260 for Slowbro, 2388 for Golem, 2384 for Gengar, and within the striking range of second-tier pokes like Alakazam (2628), Machamp (2630), and Exeggutor (2688). Now compare this with the top level of gyms. The average CP there is 3188, the average trainer level is 35, and the minimum trainer level is 27. Essentially all trainers below lvl 27 are shut out of the top level of gyms and most who have defenders in the top position are lvl 35. The only lvl 30 Pokemon capable of reaching CP 3188 is Dragonite, and 75% of all Pokemon at the top gym level is in fact a Dragonite.The following table examines variation in the top gym level according to team color and locality: Team/LocalityAverage CPAverage Trainer XPAverage Trainer LevelAll31886,429,01835Instinct31875,947,00034Mystic31726,628,96635Valor32166,371,47135Alameda Co.31405,884,37534San Francisco Co.33429,045,73236San Mateo Co.31896,310,26835Santa Clara Co.31365,599,13834 Without tests for significance, it is unclear whether these differences are meaningful. Instinct, Mystic, and Valor are all within 50 CP at the top level, so team membership does not appear to be very significant. Locality appears to be a relevant factor however. Alameda and Santa Clara counties lag behind San Mateo Co., which itself is behind San Francisco, the leader with an average trainer lvl of 36 and a whopping 3342 average CP. This is undoubtedly due to the easy availability of Dratini at the SF waterfront, while the other counties are much further away from this prime fishing spot. Gym DiversityOne final matter to explore is gym diversity. Theoretically a different Pokemon species can occupy each of the ten levels but there are zero examples of this in the 280 gyms. There are also no gyms containing 9 or 8 different species. On the other hand, some 11.4% of gyms contain only one or two Pokemon. All Dragonite gyms are rare but not highly unusual. The following table summarizes what the data reveal about gym diversity: Gym DiversityNAverage CP of GymAverage Trainer XPAverage Trainer LevelMinimum Trainer Level7 different Pokemon15 (5.4%)24392,922,20031136 different Pokemon26 (9.3%)26763,925,94233225 different Pokemon67 (23.9%)28103,899,18333224 different Pokemon96 (34.3%)29424,685,83933203 different Pokemon44 (15.7%)30384,769,56834242 different Pokemon25 (8.9%)31476,017,66035251 different Pokemon7 (2.5%)32246,569,6433530(If you are viewing on iOS, the table might be prematurely cut off. To view the whole table, click here) Over a third of gyms have four different Pokemon, the most common lineup, and while that may be negative by itself, it is quite boring when those four are almost always the SAME four: Rhydon, Gyarados, Dragonite, and either Vaporeon or Snorlax. The most diverse gyms have the least collective average CP while monospecial gyms have the highest CP; again this is a consequence of the stratification of Pokemon by CP (apex, top tier, second tier), with gyms often starting out diverse but losing lower ranked pokes over time as stagnation sets in. Gyms quickly built by Bubblestrat however may start out with only top tier Pokemon.It seems to me that if Niantic is going to keep the CP system in place for the long term, the only way to increase gym diversity – other than adding new generations – is allow tier 2 and tier 3 Pokemon to increase their CP beyond their max limits. This could be introduced by a training dynamic where we actually get to, well, train our Pokemon. That way a Muk, Slowbro, Lapras, or Poliwrath could yet again battle with the best of them like it was back in August 2016. TLDR: An examination of the gym scene in the SF Bay Area highlights the problems of the current CP system, resulting in a loss of the viability of the vast majority of potential defenders.Raw data may be obtained here: http://ift.tt/2k5iToa via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2lt82kO