"My Analysis of the Elusive Dragonite & Snorlax Nest at Rancho San Antonio"

#PokemonGO: Rancho San Antonio County Park in Silicon Valley is an acclaimed Dragonite and Snorlax spawn. There is much debate surrounding how often they spawn, where they spawn, what time of day, and what day of week they tend to spawn. I mined all the tweets from the "pogoCUP2" twitter feed and analyzed the data to answer these questions. Looking at the last 364 spawns in the past 63 days (November 28, 2016 to January 30, 2017), I've drawn the following conclusions:DragoniteLocationHere is the map of the last 100 Dragonite Spawns: ImgurWithin Rancho San Antonio County Park, your best bet is to be at the farm which is centrally located: ImgurAll the spawns appear to be along trails (fortunately)Frequency161 Dragonites Spawned in 63 days, that is on average 2.54 Dragonites per day.They range from 0 to 6 spawns per day and is normally distributed around the mean. Here is a histogram: ImgurCorrelationThere does not appear to be a strong correlation to day of the week with spawns occurring roughly equal across everyday: ImgurThere also does not appear to be a strong correlation to time of day with the Dragonite spawns occurring round the clock: ImgurPeculiarly, there is a higher change of Dragonite encounters between the hours of 1AM and 2AM. But the park is closed...Let's say if the park is only accessible for half the day (12 hours), the effective spawn per day drops to 1.26 Dragonites per day.This is still no guarantee either since you have to be within 30 minutes of walking to that location. (30 minutes being the spawn length)IV's and CP'sDragonite spawn IV's are normally distributed with an average of 50%. Histogram: ImgurDragonite spawn CP's are for the most part flatly distributed across the full range. Histogram: ImgurSnorlaxLocationHere is the map of the last 100 Snorlax Spawns: ImgurIt is noteworthy that Dragonites exclusively spawn in the parks whereas Snorlaxes may be found in the neighborhood too.Within Rancho San Antonio County Park, your best bet is to be at the farm which is centrally located: ImgurAll the spawns appear to be along trailsFrequency203 Snorlaxes Spawned in 63 days, that is on average 3.20 Dragonites per day.They range from 0 to 8 spawns per day and is normally distributed around the mean. Here is a histogram: ImgurInterestingly, the only two times 8 snorlaxes spawned was on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Niantic throwing us a gift?CorrelationThere does not appear to be a strong correlation to day of the week with spawns occurring roughly equal across everyday: ImgurThere also does not appear to be a strong correlation to time of day with the Snorlaxes spawns occurring round the clock: ImgurLet's say if the park is only accessible for half the day (12 hours), the effective spawn per day drops to 1.60 Snorlaxes per day.IV's and CP'sSnorlax spawn IV's are normally distributed with an average of 50%. Histogram: ImgurSnorlax spawn CP's are for the most part flatly distributed across the full range. Histogram: ImgurConclusionGiven effective spawn rates of only 1.3 Dragonites and 1.6 Snorlaxes per half day (day light), and the wide area to cover within 30 minutes, it is wise not to come here with the expectation of catching them. Realistically, you will probably spend 4 hours here which gives you a 42% chance of observing a Dragonite Spawn and 53% chance of observing a Snorlax Spawn. And even then, you better hope it spawns within a 30minute radius of you (better be at the Farm). So would I call this a nest? No. But a "habitat," sure. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2kw4xwp