"Hatching Over 200 Eggs From One Pokestop: Gen I/Gen II Comparison"

#PokemonGO: So starting back in January I decided to begin using the incubators I stocked up on during the Christmas sale, I ended the study when I ran out of incubators in Mid-March. Originally I was trying to get insight in whether or not the nearby biome effects what eggs you receive and if different pokestops have different chances of dropping a specific species. But as you all know Generation II dropped back in February, which allows some nice insight to comparing the affect Generation II had on egg drops. (You can take a look at all my data here.)So the first thing I looked at was IVs, and not much was found here. Average in each stat was ~12.5 average total of ~83%. Pretty much what I expected to see here.After that I compared the 3 different "eras" of egg organizations I was hatching during and the percentage of 2km, 5km, and 10km eggs I recieved. Post Rattata/Pidgey Removal Gen I, The reshuffle of categories during the Valentines Event and lastly the Generation II categorization. Here is a pie-chart comparison of the various drops I received, you can clearly see the increase of 2km eggs, which would make sense given all the shifts into that category and currently 5kms are still the most common. You can see during the Valentines event 10kms were marginally more common but this is most likely due to the increase in smoochum eggs and my sample size between Valentines and Generation II was less than 30.After seeing TSR's recent report on egg rarity tiers I thought it would be nice to apply these tiers to my hatches and see how they line up for both generations. Generation I had an interesting skew with about as many Commons as Uncommons and nearly time and a half as many Ultra-Rares as Rares. Generation II followed TSR's finding quite a bit better but once again the Ultra-Rares beat out the Rares category and Uncommons were more frequent than Commons. Part of this could be my vastly smaller sample size compared to TSR's nearly 6,000 eggs.But I propose another explanation. My theory is that pokestops have a "seed" and will more commonly drop certain pokemon, averaged out over several stops your hatches will closely match TSR's findings but receiving eggs from one pokestop can skew your results. From what I've seen it would also appear that the introduction of Generation II "re-rolled" these seeds and pokemon I used to hatch in droves I received far less of. For example before Gen II, I hatched 10 Ponyta and 10 Poliwag from the stop (and according to TSR's rarity tier study this is not unusual) and after Gen II, I only hatched one Ponyta and not a single Poliwag. Again, referencing TSR's rarity tier study Oddish was the most common hatch and Paras ranked at fourth most common. In Generation I, I hatched two Oddish and none in Gen II as for Paras I hatched 3 in total. Unfortunately I only have data for a single stop and my sample size isn't greater than 312 (The number of hatches needed to receive an Ultra-Rare) having data for another stop would be the best in gathering more evidence to support this theory but now that I'm out of incubators gathering such data will be tedious at best.Graph of Generation I HatchesGraph of Generation II HatchesFrom what I've observed in this study it seems that biomes don't have much of an affect on what eggs a stop gives out. The majority of pokemon I hatched are a rare sight in my local biome in the past 6 months I've spent in the area I've seen one ponyta and two diglett. Though it is worth mentioning that Kabuto spawns every week or so and Lapras is spawns once every few weeks which could explain the Ultra-Rare skew in my Gen I results but in Gen II I have seen two wild dratini in the past 6 months in this area compared to the five Dratini hatches seems to suggest the relatively common Lapras hatches during Gen I was most likely coincidental.I don't have the strongest statistics background, I haven't taken stats since high school so what little I do know is rusty so feel free to leave feedback or advice on what I've presented, I'd love to see what everyone's thoughts are.TL;DR It seems like certain stops have a higher chance of dropping specific species and these chances changed after Gen II. From what I've observed, it seems biomes don't have a noticeable effect on eggs given out b the pokestops within. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2ni29bJ