"[Guide] How to maximize your chances of getting an Ex-Raid invite with minimum effort (what we know so far)"

#PokemonGO: Thanks to u/anipm87 and u/dronpes we now have enough information to be able to follow very precisely where and when are Ex-Raids going to take place.The system seems to be drawing on two sources: Open Street Maps and ‘s2 cells’ which we will also use.First of all, open the s2 map and make sure the min and max level [of cells] is set to 12. Max number of cells doesn’t matter much and anything over 20 will do unless you mean to work with a seriously large area.Then draw a circle or rectangle that covers your area of interest; a blue overlay comprised of squares appears. To make the original red area disappear, select the circle/rectangle again and click once into the map. Now you only have the blue squares which we will work with.Until some genius with lots of free time over Christmas figures out how to connect the s2 map’s API with other program capable of setting markers on the map, we need to settle for taking screenshots of desired area and working with those.Select a square and mark all known locations (Paint should do) of Ex-Raids that took place after the feature’s full release. Be watchful as some gyms are set quite borderline, which may even result in multiple gyms in close proximity having Ex-Raids.We know that each square can only have 1 Ex-Raid taking place in any given wave of invites. Also no gym may have an Ex-Raid in two consecutive weeks. Here is where rural areas, finally, have advantage – lot less gyms to comb through! Now you have a list of gyms that are known to host Ex-Raids. More may appear over time, but all you need are 2 eligible gyms per square anyway. More eligible gyms are actually disadvantageous as it means more gyms you need to hit every week!Now you want to raid – once is enough – on every gym in the square that is known to have Ex-Raids but is not having one next week. In ideal case, you will have two gyms in a square which then means you only need to raid once to have a full chance of getting invited for the given square. As a f2p player, if you maximize your free passes, you can potentially qualify in up to 7 (10 if you earn 50 coins a day and invest them into passes) squares – and that’s a hell of a big area.If you have more than 2 gyms known to host raids per square, then you’ll have to hit all that aren’t having a raid planned for next week.If you only have 1 gym in the square, then you know it’s enough to only raid there once every other week.If the square never had any raids, check Open Street Maps for all gyms and mark out those located in sponsored locations & parks (see comment by u/lucaba to save yourself some work). If there are none such in a given square, check for statues, churches & university grounds. If there are none of those either, consider all gyms. The selected gyms you need to hit harder / more often with your group. If there seems to be more gyms that could potentially be eligible, try focusing hard on one to increase its potential of hosting an Ex-Raid to a maximum. Focusing at two is optimal however as that means you can have an Ex-Raid every week as these two gyms would alternate.Other factors are general – try having Silver / Gold badge on the eligible gym and simply keep doing raids as the raid badges also count...It is not currently known what exactly makes Ex-Raids trigger so we have to opt in for the “brute force” approach and simply try increasing all numbers – of raids done on the gym, of people raiding, frequency of turn-over, number of Silver & Gold badge holders on the gym…(This will take a while to pinpoint so you’ll have to be patient with us.) (I’ll try to make folks in TSR Research Group come up with a project for this... :)Possible trigger conditions:Number of people having completed a raid on the gym in (timespan) (unique trainers or bodies total)Number of people holding Silver / Gold badge on the gymTurnover frequencyNumber of raids (or t4+/t5+) completed in (timespan)“Quality” category; sponsored gyms & park gyms may have “quality” of 1: If present, they would be considered first and no other gyms may be considered. Statues, churches & university grounds may have “quality” 2; i.e. be the next in line. Rest may have “quality” 3 (only eligible if no gyms of “quality” 1 or 2 are present in the square) or even “quality” 0; never eligible (military area etc.)Number of lobbies created in (timespan) u/Shiranui85Let me know if I made any mistakes or if I’m making conclusions too difficult to follow! Or if I skipped some details. Thanks!(edit) Oh, also - this is not bulletproof and you may encounter anomalies that don't fit. In which case - speak up, it's the best way to understand the system better :)(edit2) I use the Nia-Ex-week i.e. Saturday - Friday.(edit3) (timespan) could easily be the 1 Nia-Ex-week for the trigger conditions u/Shiranui85 alternatively it could also be 'Since the last Ex-Raid'. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2C1CY4z