"The odds of getting the ideal competitive Stakataka"

Hey guys!As someone who bought Ultra Moon and plays VGC competitively, I've been thinking about the ridiculous odds in-game of getting the ideal VGC competitive Stakataka - i.e. one that gets the Beast Boost in Attack, not Defence, to allow for maximum sweepage.Since this mon's base defence is 211, you need not only a Lonely nature to do this, but a Defence IV of 16/17. This allows max Attack and its Defence to match at 201 at Level 50. If both stats are the same, Attack takes priority. Stakataka also needs to be as slow as possible to take advantage of Trick Room and Gyro Ball as best as it can. This means getting one with a Speed IV of 0 or 1.That means there’s three main hoops to jump through to get the ideal VGC Stakataka:Lonely natureSpeed IV of 0 or 1Defence IV of 16 or 17Synchronise only works 50% of the time. With the odds of getting Lonely naturally, the chances of getting a Lonely nature when you encounter Stakataka is 0.52.Because legends and Ultra Beasts always have 3 31 IVs, you need these to not be in either Defence or Speed. There’s a 25% (Edit: 20%, thank you sadisticmystic1) of that happening per encounter.It’s a 0.0625% chance to get a Defence IV to naturally land on 16 or 17, and a further 0.0625% to get Speed to naturally land on 0 or 1.Taking all this into account, the final probability each encounter to get the ideal VGC competitive Stakataka is 0.0625 x 0.0625 x 0.2 x 0.52. That’s a mind-bogglingly low 0.00040625% if my maths is correct.Ain’t nobody got time for that. via /r/pokemon https://ift.tt/2EsyX8L