"Trading IV Probability Infographic & IV Distribution Test"

#PokemonGO: Trading IV Probability InfographicIntroEven though trading has been out for a little while now, there’s been a lot of discussion about how exactly the IV reroll mechanics work. I’d like to present my own findings to back up what we already know and hopefully dispel some confusion around the topic.MethodI recorded the IV’s of 42 Pokemon before and after trading, with a total of 126 IV’s recorded.. These trades were performed between Great Friends (both synced prior to the friendship level fix), and both at Level 40.Sometimes the IV calculators could only specify a range of possible values, and in these instances I opted for the median value where possible and discarded data whenever the range was too broad. In the future, it’d be better to only record IV’s with exactly known values. I don’t think this affected the results for my purposes (investigating a relationship between IV’s pre- and post-trade) but it’s worth adding an asterisk to the IV distribution chart below.IV Relationships & DistributionCharts of IV’s original vs. post-trade, and post-trade IV distributionOne thing I wanted to investigate was a possible relationship between IV’s pre-trade and post-trade. I’ve seen some discussion about whether or not high-IV Pokemon have a better chance of remaining high-IV after a trade. My findings indicate this is not the case; a Pokemon’s original IV’s appear to have no influence on its post-trade IV’s. So a 5/4/5 and 15/14/15 are equally likely to become 15/15/15 through a trade.In the promotional screenshots and original release, the CP range displayed in-game showed the lowest possible value alongside the Pokemon’s current CP, causing many to wonder if Pokemon could gain better IV’s through trading. As many now know, yes, they can! In my testing, I’ve found IV’s roll anywhere from the floor to 15.The IV floor is what makes better IV’s more likely as friendship level increases. People speculated pre-release that Good Friends have a floor of 1/1/1, and Best Friends have a floor of 5/5/5. This means that IV’s for Good Friends will never roll below 1, and IV’s for Best Friends will never roll below 5. Due to the speed-leveling bug, people have been able to report those IV floors, and now we have a big picture that looks something like this:Good Friends: 1/1/1Great Friends: 2/2/2Ultra Friends: 3/3/3Best Friends: 5/5/5In my own testing with Great Friend trades, of the 126 IV’s I recorded, some had a value of 2 but none had a value below 2. Without a floor, there’s a 14/16 chance to roll an IV of 2 or above. The chance of this occurring 126 consecutive times is (14/16)126, or really, really, really small, so we can say with well over 99% confidence that this floor does exist and it is 2 for Great Friends. The in-game CP ranges also allow us to determine the IV floor if we know the Pokemon species and level.IV distribution is probably uniform; I’ll want more and cleaner data to look into that part.Trading IV ProbabilitiesSo what do we do with all this? There are some fun facts we can glean from the IV ranges. For example, Best Friends are about 2.5x more likely to obtain a perfect IV Pokemon from a trade than Good Friends.Something more practical is knowing which Pokemon are more likely to improve their IV’s in a trade. All I did for this was find the median IV total for each range; for example, the IV total for Pokemon traded between Great Friends ranges between 6-45 with a median IV total of 25.5. IV totals follow a normal distribution so any Pokemon with an IV total of 25 or less (~56%) has more than a 50% chance to improve its IV’s after a trade between Great Friends. At Ultra Friends, Pokemon below 60% have more than a 50% chance to improve their IV’s, and at Best Friends, the same goes for Pokemon below 67% (all your lucky 10/10/10’s).TL;DRTraded Pokemon can have IV’s between 1-15, 2-15, 3-15, and 5-15 depending on friendship level. High-IV Pokemon aren’t any more likely to have high IV’s after a trade. For Great Friends, Pokemon below 56% are likely to become better after a trade. via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2KDd66r