"[Silph Research Group] Distribution of 2km, 5km, and 10km eggs during the January 2019 Hatchathon"

#PokemonGO: Hello, travelers! We've seen plenty of posts since the start of the Hatchathon on the number of 2km, 5km and 10km eggs received from PokéStops. Given that 5km and 10km eggs are supposed to be more common right now (http://bit.ly/2F3zX7c), many travelers have been been wondering about the dearth of 10km eggs. The Silph Research Group wanted to weigh in with our preliminary distribution. While our sample sizes aren't huge, they are collected in a completely non-biased way by our trusted team. Let's dive in!FindingsIgnoring 7km and Adventure Sync eggs, researchers have received a total of 647 eggs since the start of the event. We'll use the period between 2018/12/21 and 2019/01/02 for comparison (1,126 eggs). Here are the percentage of each type of egg along with their 95% confidence interval.​Egg TypeHoliday EventHatchathon2km31 ± 3 %11± 2 %5km50 ± 3 %73 ± 3%10km20 ± 2 %17 ± 3%​While 2km eggs became more rare, and 5km eggs more common, as expected, 10km eggs have actually not significantly changed in rarity during the event as compared to their pre-event levels (Chi-squared p-value of 0.12). All of the decrease in 2km eggs has been absorbed by the 5km species. This likely indicates that there was not a simple "Move all 5km and 10km egg species up one rarity tier" applied to the egg pool, but rather a more nuanced method where individual species were moved up or down by different step sizes. At this time, the current dataset is too small to identify what these changes might have been.Parting WordsIf your goal during this event is to hatch a specific species out of a 10km egg (*cough* Riolu *cough*), there is not a lot of incentive to go spend coins on incubators. Our researchers are 1/525 from eggs collected from PokéStops and 1/511 from Gift eggs for that elusive Riolu (several have been hatched from a small AS egg sample). The new Gift egg babies are of similar rarity.However, if your goals for the event are to accumulate Stardust and sample a wide variety of candy from a lot of species, now is an excellent time to get hatching. You can receive up to 4800 Stardust from a single 5km egg, and up to 9600 from a 10km egg (with a starpiece), and with the addition of Misdreavus and Sandshrew to eggs, this is one of the largest and most diverse egg pools we've ever seen.While these findings are not the most exciting for 10km egg hunters, we hope this information helps you make informed decisions about your egg and incubator choices over the next week. You can also see the full list of hatchable species here: http://bit.ly/2H3LtlK hatching! via /r/TheSilphRoad http://bit.ly/2HdjIqK