"Analysis: A possible reason for unlucky trades of lucky friends"

#PokemonGO: In the Strawpoll that /u/joncave posted the result shows that there is a ~5% chance that the promised lucky trade will not be lucky.When we remember back the TSR analysis for luckys on regular trades showed a simmilar result for recent trades. About 5% of the trades turned lucky.​Now /u/DrLamda hinted that there might be some kind of buffer that overfills in certain situations.My theory is that this happens exatly if the trade would have been lucky anyway.This could be caused by some buffer problems as DrLamda posted but it could as well happen if the "luckyness" is calculated and saved in 2 separate steps depending on how everything works serverside.​*For example* (what could be the problem) a pokemon is considered lucky if the field lucky_state=1 in the database.Usually this is 0 for each pokémon.Now the regular mechanic checks and says:This trade will be lucky, so it adds 1 to the current lucky state (instead of setting it to a fixed 1!)The lucky friend trade does exactly the same and sets the lucky_state to 2.Now all mechanics that check if the pokémon is lucky query on "if lucky_state=1" instead of "if lucky_state>0" and the pokémon will be considered as unlucky...Disclaimer: Probably it is not how this works since this procedure would probably generate a guaranteed 12+/12+/12+ non lucky except there is some function createnewiv(lucky_or_not) that is triggered afterwards.​Sources:My Initial post in which /u/DrLambda gave me a hint for this outcomehttps://http://bit.ly/2KxDAqv Results of Lucky Trades:http://bit.ly/2UP1vWn Results of Lucky Friends Trades:http://bit.ly/2KttaYO via /r/TheSilphRoad http://bit.ly/2IrYVPr