"Predatory monetization practices of Pokemon Go."

#PokemonGO: I know it's a bit off-topic but I hope this post can lead to a good discussion.TLDR: the game is a wolf in sheep's clothing, targeted at kids, the game is exploiting many predatory monetization strategies that are getting more and more aggressive. Kids may be lacking in the ability to make well informed, and responsible decisions and the game does not make it any easier.I first played Pokemon GO in 2016 and really liked the game. People were hyped and chasing after Pokemon was fun. I managed to get to level 25 at that time but lost track of it somehow. I came back three months ago to play with my son during vacation. I know how to grind hard — got to level 38 with 130 shinies and many 100% IV meta relevant Pokemon without even optimizing for XP in a country with not very dense spawns. I know that there are places like Tokyo or San Francisco where this would not be a problem at all, but I had to travel a lot to catch that 22k Pokemons. I found myself spending too much and too quick while the game speed gradually increased. I didn't even know the real price of a raid pass. I've also felt guilty when kids, seeing my shiny legendaries, spent all their money to get enough raid passes for the next Raid Hour. I steered clear of microtransactions for a long time, but the game somehow unlocked me and made it feel OK. I really wanted to know why. Here is what I found out.Current design of the game is somewhere in between dark patterns of games monetization. The gaming industry focused on microtransactions widely uses Bartel Types (https://ift.tt/29B1hca) to describe gamer types and create products fitting their playing style.Achievers want to beat the game, get to the top-level as soon as possible. It's all about the grind. You sell convenience to them and tools to progress.Explorers are more concerned with the lore of the game and not so much about leveling. The content is most vital for them but it is expensive. Fortunately for Niantic, there is a good amount of lore behind Pokemon.Socializers play the game for a social factor. Playing with friends or meeting new people is important to them. Customization is the key here.Killers want to compete and disrupt the world of the game. So anything helping them to win is suitable.Achievers, the most profitable group, can get star pieces, lucky eggs, raid passes, incubators or supplies. Socializers have the styles section of the shop (not very profitable). The recent Regigigas event catered to some extent to Explorers. Pokemon GO does not have the "killer" type yet, but with the PVP rework, I can expect there to be some products targeted at them as well. It's a slippery slope, however, to avoid visible pay2win elements.Since Achievers is the most profitable group, I'm expecting Niantic's focus to stay there.The monetization has stages. Hook, Habit, and Hobby. The most profitable is when people see the game as their main hobby and put majority of their time and a lot of resources into it. The first purchase should be made as soon as possible to break the ice of monetization. For a long time, the game relied on the inconvenience of Pokemon and item storage to force people into committing money, but in many ways, it was not optimal. First of all, the prices were in coins that could be collected in gyms, and it was happening too slow, not leading directly to the first transaction. To force faster monetization, they briefly introduced “beginner boxes.” One time, very cheap and great value purchase for the beginners. Regigigas event was also an attempt to force real money, good perceived value transaction to the niche of the active players that never bought coins. Once the person makes the first purchase with real money, their reception of themselves switches to "spenders", and they can make subsequent purchases easier.There are three types of loot boxes implemented in the game. A 7-day participation reward that is not yet monetized but serves the purpose of keeping players engaged. The second types are eggs that are the containers for mysterious, common or rare rewards. Here, a player can purchase a key (incubator) to speed up box opening. The third one is raiding where once a player meets conditions to beat the boss (location and participation) a draw takes place to win a randomized reward (that 100IV shiny legendary).For the first two loot boxes (and especially second), the list of rewards and the chance to obtain the desired one is obscure to the participant. Unless a person uses The Silphroad data to estimate the chances. A great example was presented during the last shiny regionals event where the likelihood of hatching all three shiny regionals using infinite incubator was negligible, and there were plenty of YouTubers rolling a full set of super incubators with moderate success. This method exploits the limited disclosure of the product.All of these are implemented for a well established "Gacha" mechanics. (https://ift.tt/2AEhGfq). The idea here is that it uses lottery mechanics, at the same time making the progression difficult. A player can not immediately get what they want and have to keep trying a few times. Completing the collection, as with shiny regionals, is very difficult and requires many tries and thus massive spending to increase the odds.The game exploits some loss aversion strategies. Relatively harmless, one is 7-day streak with a more complex being sets of legendaries in raids for a limited time only (Regis for example) forcing users to complete collection that is likely not to come back for a long time.In-game currency's goal is to desensitize players to how much actual money is being spent. Ask yourself how much is a single raid pass in the shop, and if you fail to answer that question quickly, you have been successfully desensitized.There are some other exploits used. Availability and social proof broadcasted on the friends' list reinforces the belief that anyone can arrive at a similar outcome, omitting the lottery aspect of the game.In general, games have four ways of progressing: Skill, Luck, Grind, or Pay. The last two are the most important for monetization and none of the most financially successful mobile games is based on skill.Future of the game.In my opinion, Niantic is heavily optimizing for profit. Achievers will be the most exploited segment of players. While a lot of people are looking for trading rework, the current setup works just fine for Niantic, forcing Achievers to grind and spend even more. If anything, trading can become more limited or may require supplementing or replacing stardust with coins or other special items that require grinding or can be purchased. Stardust or power-ups purchase would also make perfect sense. Any new game mechanics will be accompanied by products that allow users to cut corners and progress faster. One example is a Regigigas event with Unova stone that may be considered as Pay2win, allowing players to evolve meta relevant pokemon faster. Another one is the team rocket radar availability.There have been speculations that specific in-game actions influence shiny odds. There is no evidence yet to support that, but this year, Niantic has been granted a patent (Detecting and preventing cheating in a location-based game) that describes the mechanics of modifying in-game experience based on in-game actions. Although it's intended for punishing players, suspect of cheating, it's a tool that can be easily used to promote top spenders. Unfortunately, the existence of such mechanics will be difficult if not impossible to prove, but it could be very profitable. Obscure way the game is designed right now (shiny odds etc.) helps them a lot.Lootboxes are here to stay as long as there are no relevant regulations. Even with regulations, Niantic can defend its mechanics for a long time. Interestingly enough, draw rates are required to be published in China, so if Niantic is going to resume the operations there, we may get full draw rates directly from them. In a most aggressive scenario, they would introduce instant incubators or even shiny rate boosters similar to incense.PVP is going to open a lot of new possibilities for Niantic. I expect them to ticket the events and battles similarly to raid passes and offer in-game rewards similar to loot boxes. There will be little skill required for that part, except for grinding enough pokemon, stardust, and stones to create a strong team.Since content is expensive and Explorers are not top spenders I don't expect there to be any improvement there. Tasks should be grindy and enforce additional spending.The level cap increase presents the company with additional opportunities to monetize. I bet that they will not give it away for free without a good plan on how to do that efficiently. Probably in small steps and only when they will be sure that the majority of players can grind their way to that requiring as many shop items as possible.More paid events will probably be announced as well.ConclusionI'm still playing, but I feel the game is designed to exploit and manipulate the addictive nature of human psychology. It is presented as a healthy and fun way to spend time but at the same time is joining rank with the worst examples of manipulation for profit. This is especially dangerous for kids. I know that kid accounts exist, but I only met one ten years old kid that had that kind of account. Many others had normal accounts, and many of them had already purchased to stay on top of the game. The game is slowly unlocking child gambling, maybe not as hard as Fortnite but uses the same patterns. I write this because I believe that knowledge and awareness is more effective than regulations. The game, in the current state, should not be considered safe for kids or at least parents should supervise and explain game mechanics. This is not a fun Google Maps meet Pokemon vision anymore but full-blown money-making machine surpassing $3 billion lifetime revenue. via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2Qj8yns