"104 Unown Raids Later, One Guys Extremely Rough Analysis on Unown Shiny Rates in Raids"

#PokemonGO: I see this question getting asked just about every 5 minutes either on this subreddit or in discord, so I thought I'd throw some data at it so people could have something to look at. With the start of the Enigma event I had one main goal in mind and that was to collect a shiny of each of the Unowns. This is an analysis of the total Unown raids I’ve done in order get a shiny of each letter and a rough estimate of what I believe the shiny rate is for Unown. I understand 104 is a small sample size and is statistically not reliable, but I do feel some data can still be pulled from it.My unown totals:Unown A: 34Unown L: 19Unown R: 38Unown T: 6Unown U: 7Total: 104Statistical Probability assuming odds were 1/20 for 104 catches# of Shinies% Chance00.48%12.64%27.15%312.8%417.01%517.91%615.55%711.46%87.31%94.11%102.05%110.92%Statistical Probability assuming odds were 1/30 for 104 catches# of Shinies% Chance02.95%110.58%218.77%321.98%419.12%513.17%67.49%73.61%81.51%90.55%100.18%110.05%Statistical Probability assuming odds were 1/40 for 104 catches# of Shinies% Chance07.18%119.16%225.30%322.06%414.28%57.32%63.10%71.11%80.35%90.09%100.02%11-----Statistical Probability assuming odds were 1/50 for 104 catches# of Shinies% Chance012.23%125.96%227.28%318.93%49.75%53.98%61.34%70.38%80.09%90.02%10-----11-----Statistical Probability assuming odds were 1/60 for 104 catches# of Shinies% Chance017.41%130.69%226.79%315.43%46.61%52.24%60.63%70.15%80.03%9-----10-----11-----Now that I've laid out the data I want to get more to the point which is a discussion of possible shiny rates on Unowns, and considering the fact that my sample size is so small, I will be borrowing off of what I've seen in the community. I believe the Unown shiny rate is roughly 1/50 for shiny odds, with it possibly existing in the range of 1/40-1/60. I was very fortunate to get a shiny for each letter as quickly as I did, and so far up to this point I only know of one other player with similar results, having 4 shinnies with 90 total raids as of yesterday when I last spoke to them. On the opposite end of the spectrum I have heard of quite a few people getting upwards of 60 raids without a single shiny. Despite this I do want to emphasize that I feel like people without a shiny after 50-60 raids are still in the minority. The majority of players I interact with at this point that have done over 50-60 raids all have at least 1 shiny, with quite a few having 2-3. Using the rough number of shinnies I've heard of other people getting I believe that people with all 5 shinnies after ~100 raids and those with 0 shinnies nearing 100 raids are both extremes on opposite ends of the RNG spectrum for shiny odds, with the chances of catching no shinnies after 100 raids being slightly higher than the chances of catching 5 shinnies. Looking back at the tables the first one that represents this situation is the table representing the odds of catching a shiny Unown at 1/50. A person would have a 12.23% chance of catching 0 shinnies in total at that point after 104 catches, whereas another person would have a cumulative 5.81% chance of having 5 or more shiny Unowns after 104 raids. This would accurately portray a scenario where a lucky few (myself) have been able to get them all and a slightly larger, but still minority, have been unable to get a single shiny after a large number of raids.I have gone ahead and created tables for even worse odds of 1/75 and 1/100 that I've heard people discussing just to put in perspective. I personally don't feel that they are accurate for the odds I've seen personally and within the community.Statistical Probability assuming odds were 1/75 for 104 catches# of Shinies% Chance024.75%134.80%224.22%311.13%43.80%51.03%60.23%70.04%8-----9-----10-----11-----Statistical Probability assuming odds were 1/100 for 104 catches# of Shinies% Chance035.16%136.94%219.21%36.60%41.68%50.34%60.05%7-----8-----9-----10-----11-----While it still is statistically possible for my rate of 5 shinnies in roughly 100 catches to fall within these windows, we are now pushing the extreme edge where I don't think anything higher would be statistically possible, i.e. 1/150 or full odds of 1/450 (1/512). I've also seen a large number of people getting shinies off of hosted raids over in the Remote Reddit Raids discord. And by a large number of people I mean you'll get 1-2 per lobby on average if the host is willing to sit there and do as many sessions as possible. I'd assume the average number of hosted lobbies for the unown raids is somewhere around 8-10 which would put the odds fairly close to that 1/50 window.TL:DR I believe the odds are roughly 1/50. Despite the tables and data there isn't enough actual data to make it relevant so it's still opinion, take it all with a grain of salt. I got lucky, I wish you all good luck shiny hunting too. At 1/50 odds you would need to do approximately 235 raids to have a greater than 50% chance at all 5 Unowns, so please take that with a grain of salt when investing. I managed to get all 5 in 104 raids but that was luck.PS - I don't really know how to format on reddit and I'm not affiliated with TheSilphRoad. If someone wants to argue something else with their own results then have at it. via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/33LYmur