"[Analysis] T5 Rewards: Does Gym Control Matter and Damage vs Speed"

#PokemonGO: tl;dr: Gym Control matters the least when short-manning with the lowest possible numbers, but is otherwise still worth trying to get. Massive lobbies may be more beneficial than small lobbies if the raid boss has a double-weakness since Speed Bonus grants a maximum of 8 vs Damage's maximum of 4.Thought I'd take a look at how often gym control balls matter to amount of rewards you get from T5 raids. Before the recent replacement of Team Contribution with the Speed Bonus, not having Gym Control (2 Balls) always resulted in losing 1 item bundle (as per this TSR page). This no longer seems to be the case, as per u/skewtr's thread here. Possibly since more bonus balls = wider ranges for how many balls give a certain amount of bundles.The important points for this topic:You can earn a maximum of 14 non-Friend related Premier Balls, but due to the high health of T5 bosses, it is impossible to get all 14 (except hypothetically on poor ol'Deoxys-A). It does seem feasible for some T3 so it'd be interesting to see those blanks filled in.2 of these 14 balls come from Gym Control.Assuming the data is correct, 5/6-8 Premier Balls = 8 bundles, 9-11 balls = 9 bundles and 12 balls = 10 bundles.In other words, if you have 7-8 or 10-11 Premier Balls without gym control, then it will have mattered. How often can this happen?I looked at a few T5 bosses using GamePress' raid simulator to look at TTW and determined how many bundles you might get based on Speed and Damage alone to see if gym control will get you an additional one (which will be referred to as "GC Bundle" below). The ones I tested were:Heatran, the previous T5 boss; has a double weaknessCresselia, the current T5 boss; bulkyArticuno, the upcoming T5 boss; has a double weaknessLugia, a previous T5 boss; extremely bulkyDarkrai, at T6 statusI'm no expert with the simulator (and don't have a Pokebattler account), so there's going to be a lot of assumptions. Maybe just use this as a thought experiment or something; hopefully there aren't any glaring issues.No weather boostBest Friends (I personally wouldn't try shortmanning with randoms...)No dodgingTeams of 1 specific counter vs 1 specific (IMO, difficult) moveset (Not sure I can test an unknown moveset for TTW)Counters are at level 35 with perfect IVs; no Shadow or Mega boostEach player does equal damage- I.e., 5 players = 20%, 10 players = 10%Times are naturally an estimateHeatran (Fire Spin/Flamethrower) VS Groudon (Mud Shot/Earthquake)PlayersTime to Win (min)# Balls (Damage, Speed)BundlesGC Bundle?24:046 (4, 2)8No32:407 (4, 3)8Yes411:538 (4, 4)8Yes61:157 (3, 4)8YesCresselia (Psycho Cut/Moonblast) VS Darkrai (Snarl/Shadow Ball)PlayersTime to Win (min)# Balls (Damage, Speed)BundlesGC Bundle?34:396 (4, 2)8No413:337 (4, 3)8Yes62:137 (3, 4)8YesArticuno (Ice Shard/Ice Beam) VS Rampardos (Smack Down/Rock Slide)PlayersTime to Win (min)# Balls (Damage, Speed)BundlesGC Bundle?24:046 (4, 2)8No32:427 (4, 3)8Yes42:008 (4, 4)8Yes521:308 (4, 4)8Yes61:139 (3, 6)9NoLugia (Dragon Tail/Future Sight) VS Zekrom (Charge Beam/Wild Charge)PlayersTime to Win (min)# Balls (Damage, Speed)BundlesGC Bundle?44:016 (4, 2)8No53:167 (4, 3)8Yes62:356 (3, 3)8No72:116 (2, 4)8NoT6 Darkrai (Snarl/Shadow Ball) VS Lucario (Counter/Aura Sphere)PlayersTime to Win (min)# Balls (Damage, Speed)BundlesGC Bundle?34:406 (4, 2)8No43:227 (4, 3)8Yes52:457 (4, 3)8Yes62:207 (3, 4)8Yes1. 5 players have the same outcome ball-wise.2. With weather boost + stronger Rampardos, you could actually go sub-1:15 and get 10 balls [4 damage, 6 speed], getting 12 balls / 10 bundles with Gym Control.Gym control doesn't seem to really matter if you're shortmanning with the absolute minimum, but increasing your lobby size a bit can increase your ball count to where gym control can contribute an additional item bundle. Additionally, dealing with bulkier T5 bosses can cost you 1-2 Premier Balls per raid, but it never crosses the point where you get fewer item rewards. Since T5 raids previously had a maximum of 8 bundles, and lacking gym control immediately cut you down to 7 bundles, current T5 do appear to be more rewarding for the most part, so no bamboozle on Niantic's part.Naturally, trying to get Gym Control is always the safest option, but if you raid with a pretty static group and get a consistent ball count for a given T5, maybe you don't have to be picky about what gym to raid at anymore.So, how about that whole speed bonus vs damage dealt? You see how, for the most part, 2-7 person lobbies got a total 6-8 Premier Balls before counting Gym Control? You know what else just automatically gives you 6 or 8 Premier Balls? Beating the raid boss really fast. Beating a T5 under 1:15 gets you 6 balls and as long you did your part, you'll get at least 1 damage ball, putting you on par with most of the scenarios above. Got a raid boss with a double weakness? Beat it under a T5 under 30 seconds with a lobby of 20 and that's a minimum of 8 balls. Deal at least 5% of the damage as well and now you're at 9, which coincedentally is the one time where Gym Control doesn't seem to matter at all.Let's just take at the same bosses but with a lobby of 10 and 20. I'll even make the counters level 30 instead because I'd say you're way more likely to run into lower level players or players who don't have maxed out counters when dealing with large public lobbies.Raid Boss (# Players)Time to Win (min)# Balls (Damage, Speed)BundlesGC Bundle?Heatran (10)0:528 (2, 6)8YesHeatran (20)0:259 (1, 8)9NoCresselia (10)1:246 (2, 4)8NoCresselia (20)0:427 (1, 6)8YesArticuno (10)0:468 (2, 6)8YesArticuno (20)0:249 (1, 8)9NoLugia (10)1:376 (2, 4)8NoLugia (20)0:487 (1, 6)8YesDarkrai (10)1:226 (2, 4)8NoDarkrai (20)0:407 (1, 6)8YesFor the bulkier mons, it seems either way is likely give you the same amount of Premier Balls. For ones with a double weakness though, the "Suggested Group Size: 20" might not be such a bad idea after all. This isn't to say that it's always the better option; I don't think you'll ever get 12 Premier Balls fighting an Articuno with 20 people at a gym that's your team colour. But the next time you or your group see a raid with a lot of interest, it might be worth joining in with them instead of going private or waiting it out to start a lobby of your own. You'll probably get just as many rewards, plus you'll spend less time fighting and use fewer healing items after. via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2FzbkBv