"10k drop rate - expect around 5 Silphroad members to get zero 10K eggs from their first 100 eggs"

#PokemonGO: Edit1: My motivation was to see how perfect random would look like. I don't claim that the drop rate is random. But I felt I couldn't contribute to other discussions or anectdotes well enough without knowing how perfect random looks like. But yes - I admit I lean towards thinking random at least in this case is the most likely solution albeit not necessarily exactly 10%.Random can be fascinating or it can frustrate big time. And it is often misunderstood. I have read quite a few theories now trying to show the 'non-randomness' of 2K, 5K and 10K eggs. So I generated a spreadsheet to calculate the actual odds. I have added the google spreadsheet below.http://ift.tt/2bnicRZ are only two assumptions used: 1) The egg distribution is random 2) I assume a 10% chance to get a 10K eggSo what did I get out of it? 99% of gamers should get between 3 and 18 10K eggs from the first 100 eggs. 10 eggs would be the most common - but this is a very large spread. The chance to get zero 10K eggs out of the first 100 eggs might look very small - 1 out of 37648. But taking 180K registered Silphroad members and you should expect around 5 very unlucky ones among us who will never see a 10K egg out of their first 100 eggsI took 10% as a best rounded estimate. Values will chance if it is below or above that value.Edit 2: First of all - thaks for the very civilized discussion so far. We are starting to get some pretty unlikely outliers - either way. There are different ways to explain them.1) Misremembering them wrong is one possibility - but we should first assume that isn't the case and thanks for nobody making this assumption.2) Then there is the possibility they just have been 'lucky' or 'unlucky'. We will have reporting bias. But I have to admit even taking reporting bias into account that the number of outliers and the extremety of them is too high for me feeling comfortable to assume perfect random all over.3) There is the often discussed theory that not all pokestops are the same. Assume one extreme example - half the pokestops yield 0% of 10k eggs and the other half yields 20%. This would still look exactly the same for most players. Assuming due to playstyle/location you have a 5% rate then your chance to get zero out of 100 scyrockets to 1 out of 168. Or if your chance is 20% then the chance of getting 5 10k eggs out of 10 is suddenly 1 out of 157 and not that outlandish anymore. This scenario could explain anectdotal info. It would also not be picked up by botting data if the bots run around to enough different stops. The problem with to proof/disproof this would be that we split all data into individual pokestops. That would completely undermine the power of statistics as we need large enough numbers.Sorry - I can't offer a simple solution here.(minor formatting improvements - and it seems even more outliers coming in. I said we should expect around 5 SilphRoad members to get zero 10k eggs out of their first 100. But even with reporting bias I wouldn't expect all 5 of them reading my post and then posting).Edit 3: Moved down edit 2 together with this one as otherwise my edits fill the full screen.Did I get the 10% wrong? Possibly? I'm pretty sure I remembered a drop rate of slightly above 10% from a post here with 2000+ egg drops. Enough to be pretty confident and more importantly from a single source - so no reporting bias. But I couldn't find the post anymore. Googling I found a claim (unconfirmed) about 4.5% based on 100K+ drops. But I couldn't find that one either. I therefore added some extra datapoints at the end. At 3% the chance is 1 out of 20 that you get zero 10K eggs out of 100. It goes up to 1 out of 356231 for 12%. We have multiple users now reporting 0 10K eggs out of x with x between 39 and 149 in this thread alone and more in other threads that I read while trying to chase down a big dataset from the same source. Lowering the 10% to 7% might explain these cases as mere 'unlucky'. On the other hand there are also the cases of - I found 10 10K eggs over a single weekend. Lowering the value to 7% might make some of these cases very, very unlikely. But in most cases there isn't enough data (total eggs) to calculate exact probabilities. I will bow out now as I should have done so a while ago. Only 3 (?) pokemon caught all day and other work to be done. Thanks for all the contributions. I thought it would be useful but it seems the more data comes in the more murky it gets.More technical notes to follow:Actually the spreadsheet has a variable in field I2 where I can change 2) to any number between 0 and 1 that I want. Unfortunately it seems all formula were stripped out when I copy&pasted from Excel.How was the spreadsheet done? Column A is the number of 10K eggs and columb B the number of non-10K eggs (or 100 - A). Column C is the number of combinations that you can get x 10K eggs and 100-x non-10K eggs. Column D is the chance to get a specific outcome (say egg 1-10 = 10K eggs and egg 11-100 = non-10K egg). Multiply column C and D and you get the total chance to get x eggs of 10K. Column F is then the cummulative chance. I also added 1/cummulative as a lot of people feel it is easier to comprehend 1 out of 100 as it is to translate 0.01 into a chance.Number 10K Chance2 0.2%3 0.6%4 1.6%5 3.4%6 6.0%7 8.9%8 11.5%9 13.0%10 13.2%11 12.0%12 9.9%13 7.4%14 5.1%15 3.3%16 1.9%17 1.1%18 0.5%19 0.3%20 0.1%Edit 3 data:3% 204% 595% 1696% 4867% 14188% 41809% 1247010% 3764911% 11507912% 356231 via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2bn3bQ0