"What's the best hatching strategy?"

#PokemonGO: Please take 2 minutes to fill our new survey on leveling strategies and XP or join the discussion about XP and Leveling1.What is KAPE?KAPE stands for Kilometers Average Per Egg and is computed byKm walked / eggs hatched It is a rough measure of the effectiveness of your hatching. While it is far from a perfect measure, it can be easily computed exactly from your character page, without relying on subjectivity or memory. This allows us to have precise statistics on it and allows players to easily track their KAPE.We are interested in it because optimizing your KAPE will:Increase the number of Pokemons you hatch.increase your candies from hatching.Increase your 10Km eggs.Increase your stardust from hatching*.I’m writing this post to share what I learned from the data you provided on the survey. I think we can use this to optimize the output from walking. I am not a data scientist, so take it all with a grain of salt and please bring your constructive criticism and suggestions. I’m interested in doing further analysis, so if you like what you read, support me by filling my next surveyThe entire analysis is based on a survey, answered by more than 1000 players from this community. You can still answer the original survey if you haven’t, and visit the preliminary analysis to get some insight.Histogram of all KAPE1. Some basic dataFrom our survey:.Average2.4145Min KAPE0.528Max KAPE10.25Max Km1398Max eggs hatched1765The player with the largest KAPE, claims he didn’t know about eggs until level 27.The player with the lowest KAPE has spent upwards of 300 dollars in the game.The player that walked the most hatched almost one egg per kilometerThe player that hatched the most got: “7 Lapras, 4 Snorlax, 4 Chansey, 6 Grimer.” All of them before update 2.2. It's not the size of the KAPE in the trainer...Don't try to compare your KAPE to the average or to your friends. In some cases, larger Kape might be good news, for example:Being lucky with 10Km eggs, will increase your KAPEWalking a lot, might quickly use your blue incubators and increase your KAPEIn this analysis, I will try to show you the strategies which the data suggest will decrease YOUR KAPE.3. The orange incubator.It goes without saying that the orange incubator should ALWAYS be incubating. Every kilometer you walk without the incubating, it’s a kilometer lost!To learn more about the orange incubator, I added (late) to the survey a question about the orange incubator with the results summarized in the following graph. Just from the limited data, the only conclusion we can draw is that players with low KAPE save the orange incubator for 2km eggs.Orange incubator strategies (partial data)Is that the best strategy? Maybe. We can’t yet conclude that from the data. But back of the envelope calculations suggest it is.4. Buying incubatorsThis post aims to help everyone optimize their gameplay within their means. Having said that, we must say this clearly: The best strategy is to constantly incubate all 9 eggs.Players who are constantly incubating all eggs are, in average, hatching two eggs every kilometer they walk.StrategyAverage KAPER2constantly incubating all eggs0.5550.7In general buying incubators is the best predictor of a low KAPE. As long as you don’t have all eggs incubating, buying an extra blue incubator will decrease your KAPE, with diminishing returns.Bouth incubators and KAPEIn the rest of the post, I will focus on finding the best strategy given the eggs you have.5. Playing without buying incubatorsSince buying incubators so heavily influences KAPE, the best insight to the hatching strategy comes from those players that have never bought eggs.According to the data, the best KAPE is achieved by using blue incubators both for 10km eggs and 5km.Strategies without buying incubators.The second best strategy is to use blue incubators only on 10Km eggs. The worst strategy is to use blue incubators in all eggs.Use blue incubators in10Km eggs10Km and 5Kmall eggsKAPE3.73.354.12R20.930.9130.966Well obviously, hatching a 5Km over a 10km egg yields a better KAPE… but then what about hatching your 10km?! The truth is you will eventually get more incubators for your 10Km. Either by leveling or, preferably, by battling, you will get more blue incubators, so don’t worry too much about saving those incubators for the 10km. Use them in your 5Km, so you can GET the 10km in the first place, you can then use them in the 10Km if you wish.5. Buying some incubatorsOnce you start buying incubators the strategy above becomes even better. DON’T save your blue incubators for your 10km, you will find more later. Hatch, Hatch, Hatch! At all comparable levels of bough eggs, those who saved blue eggs were always at a disadvantage. Those who used blue incubators in 2Km (without having all 9 eggs incubating) were the worst!All strategiesIn fact using blue incubators in both 10Km eggs and 5Km eggs is the most popular solution, by far:Strategy distribution.6. LevelingLeveling is also great for your KAPE: (1) you get incubators (2) you get better at battles. Work hard on that XP and your hatching will improve!!Average KAPE per level.7. Power players don’t walkOne interesting thing I learned from the data is that power players are, by far, not the most walked. In some cases because they constantly incubate 9 eggs and hatch 800 eggs in the same distance I hatch 150 and in some others because they simply don’t care about eggs.Km walked by level8. Some things people said about hatchingPicked at randomly subjectively:Damn RNG !!worst 10k egg luck everrrrrrrrrI have a pink anusS----y 10k's :(too few 10k eggaIt's a mess.💩hate JynxPreety ----, mateToo many MagmarI just can't talk myself into spending real money for fictional creatures...It was a hot summerLapras.... where are you?nothing but trash from 10ks...I get a lot of NidoransI don't know what colour my anus is, sorry I can't be of more help.it's ok* WTB More 10k eggs....I walked until i got a blister and all i got for it was a jinx.TiringOne incubator is not fun :cEhAlrightSnorlax where are youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu???It's my favorite part of the game via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2emB2ra