"[Discussion] Niantic spawn tinkering and what it means for the game & The Silph Road"

#PokemonGO: Over the last couple of months we've seen quite a few changes in how Niantic control spawning.First we only seemed to have global nest migrations, with all nests of species x-> species y. Then we saw migrations where the result Pokemon was no longer linked to the original nest Pokemon. Then we saw spawn point changes - some added, some removed. This was coupled with reports of a higher frequency of rarer mons - starters especially. Then came Halloween - a huge global event based shift in spawning Now we have the latest changes - an increase in Pokemon variety (observed here and confirmed by Niantic) coupled with:Strange spawn behaviour observed at nests (multiple species at same nest?)Possible increase in cluster spawning of some type (multiple of same species noticed occasionally at non-nest locations)Another change in spawn point distributionThese changes - whatever mechanism is used for spawning, and I think we may have seen changes in it - point to Niantic gaining greater control and far more granularity in governing spawn points.This has various benefits for Niantic.They can keep spawning mysterious - this is a game of discovery, if you work out the patterns then it loses some mystiqueThey can tinker in ways designed to keep the larger (more casual) player base interested (they maybe don't know about nests, they just want to meet something interesting when they're out for a stroll)They can cut down on species farming at nests - which can lead to an imbalance in the meta and/or an advantage to "serious" players (those of us that are well-informed)They can tailor spawn based events in the futureThey can analyse and react to data on how their tinkering affects amount of play and amount of expenditure - maximising their player base and incomeIt has a few drawbacks for us on The Silph Road - as we're generally fairly knowledgeable about how spawning works, and where to go to pick up the right Pokemon.The Nest Atlas (a fantastic work) could become pointless - if Niantic downgrade nests then they're harder to discover/confirm and less useful when you get there.Our previous research into spawn mechanics could become irrelevant - if they've changed how spawn mechanics work then our previous conclusions no longer hold and we will need to gather new data for analysis, create new hypotheses to test, and be ready to throw out almost our entire knowledge base at the drop of a hatIf we have an increase in variety of spawn types then they may work on different rules - we may not see the same mechanics for each point. This will increase statistical noise in surveys.If they continue with increasing granularity in spawn control we could see local changes implemented at micro level, instead of global changes that we easily notice and confirm - and this may already be happening.Biome theory in particular is going to need a huge shake-up. Be careful in assuming data from a month or two ago can be merged with data from now.In short, we need to re-evaluate what we think we know about spawning, and the assumption that we understand the basic mechanics has to be thrown out until we can re-confirm it.Lastly - when people pop up and ask if it's usual to pick up several Growlithe in the space of a couple of hours, just hold on for a couple of minutes before shouting "RNG!". Yes, it probably is, but micro changes are going to be really hard to observe and collect statistically viable data on. There's a possibility we're dismissing observations of these effects out of hand too quickly.EDIT: added a couple of smaller points EDIT: On the mystery of spawning.... Yes, it's a game of discovery, it includes the very idea of research, but I don't think they wanted us to try and peek behind the curtain to see how the Wizard of Oz did his stuff. We've got quite into the nuts and bolts of how the game is made, whereas the game narrative would prefer we were investigating phases of the moon, weather conditions, vegetation types etc. And no, the game isn't sophisticated enough to handle all that. But no sausage maker wants their customers to know how the sausages are made. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2fbCjSe