"Dust and affordability to train up - Part 1"

#PokemonGO: I saw someone complaining not enough analysis post here at the moment - so I thought I add this bit I played around with earlier. Background - I tend always to use dust as it comes in. I have 12 mons fully maxed out. All this got thrown into jeopady yesterday when I good 'too lucky' and caught not just one but two perfect pokemon - a magicarp and a haunter - both relative low level. So I did an analysis - and the results suprised me.I checked the cost in dust and candy to power them up. I then extrapolated to level 40.Step 1 was to calculate the chance for perfect (or near perfect) Pokemon. Then just multiply the dust gained with the average number of pokemons needed to catch one. I also added the candy. And off course - eggs are a good source of dust - so I added eggs as well.Table 1 describes this dataDescriptionChance 1 out ofDust gainedCandy gained100% IV wild catch409640960016380100% IV wild catch PM2457624576009830098% IV+ wild catch1024102400409298% IV+ wild catch PM61446144002457296% IV+ wild catch409.6409601634.496% IV+ wild catch PM2457.62457609826.42K egg 100% IV21612960016205K egg 100% IV216259200334810K egg 100% IV2165184005184PM stands for perfect move set. I assume just one out of 6 moves is perfect. I know quite well that Vaporeon (I have a perfect one) has only 3 move sets - and I'm happy with mine.I should also not forgetDescriptionDailyDustDaily Streak Bonus1/day857Gym Bonus (10 per day)1/day5000Gym Bonus (5 per day)1/day2500Now I compare this with the costWild/EggDust to level 40Dust to level 38Dust to level 30Wild catch23250019450082500Egg level 2022500018700075000The dust cost for a wild catch is calculated using the average cost from level 1 to 30 as level is equally distributed. Eggs assume you reached level 20.So far I always laughed about the dust hoarders - but the calculation shows me all I will ever be able to afford is perfect pokemon - and a little bit spare. Daily bonus/gyms help - with 5 gyms a day and a daily bonus I manage one additional pokemon maxed out to 40 every three month.Interestingly - hatching does cost more compared to catching in regard to dust as you gain more perfect pokemon.If this all looks wrong and you say - but that can't be right/ Well - Maths doesn't lie - does it?Well - here is the catch. I calculated that it takes me 3 1/2 more years to get to level 40. I'm level 31 right now. In this time I should get another 29 perfect pokemon and some 12 million dust. That allows me to level up some 50 odd pokemon to level 40. If you wonder how - 12 from approx. 50K of newly caught pokemon (I have 7K caught now) and 17 from 3500 eggs (I hatched 500 so far).Add the 29 to my existing 5 that stats tell me I get and not much left will be there to spend on 'suboptimal' pokemon.But here comes the issue. Which perfect pokemon will I get? Surely there will be at least 1 pidgey and 1 rattata 1 meowth - and likely 2 voltorbs and 2 magnemites as they are even more common where I live.About useful pokemons? Well - more about this if I find the time to write part 2. The true learning for me was - hey - with 12 million dust coming in by level 40 - what do I care if I wasted a few hundred thousand on suboptimal pokemon. And sooner or later I will find a perfect IV pokemon and will decide it isn't worth powering up at all. The first two were great - number 3 a let down (Sandslash with lousy move set) - number 4 and 5 show promise (Magicarp and Haunter - still a few candy short to evolve and see what moves I get) but who knows what I will get in the future.And the chance for a perfect Snorlax - well - I finally got my first a week ago from an egg. Extrapolated I get 7 more from eggs and my chance will be 7/216 - so don't count on it. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2hWXpZ3