"Excellent Curveballs Do In Fact Work"

#PokemonGO: Writing this post because I've heard a lot of people at raids say that excellent curveballs "don't work" and distress every time they throw perfectly but the pokemon breaks out. This is due to misconceptions about odds.If you throw an excellent curveball with a gold medal and a golden razzberry, congratulations, you have done everything in your power to maximize your chances of catching the legendary on that particular throw. You did not however guarantee that you will catch the legendary. Far from it.The base capture rate for the legendary beasts is 2%. If you throw an excellent curveball with a gold medal and a golden razzberry you will have increased your capture odds to about 15% on average. This means that even if you do everything right, you are still far more likely to not catch the pokemon than to catch it. So no, the game is not necessarily bugged if you don't catch a legendary after a perfect throw. It would be more likely to be bugged if you always caught it.To put this into further perspective, lets assume you get 8 premier balls and throw perfectly each time. It may seem like you should be certain to catch the legendary, but the odds of you not catching the pokemon will still be about 27%, or about the same as flipping two coins and both landing on heads. In other words, not too unusual at all.TL;DR If you throw perfectly and the pokemon breaks out, the game is in fact working exactly as intended. Even if this happens many times in a row. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2vFtFan