"How many raids does it take to get at least one Charge TM"

#PokemonGO: Raids needed for a single charge TM/u/isaacpeverell asked in a different thread http://ift.tt/2vXtsj7 how unlucky he was by doing 50 raids without a single charge TM. I started to write a comment but thought I post this as a thread instead. The numbers differ A LOT depending on the tier.Below is the table with the numbers - please let me explain how I got them and the limitations:TierDrops per raidAverage TMsAverage RaidsDrops 99%Raids 99%120.026282041023.50.0335820234350.08134158346.50.20522034580.47211014Column 1 is the tier. This should be simple. Numbers differ VASTLY by tier.Column 2 is the number of drops for that you get for a raid. I assume you get 10 or 11 balls per raid.Column 3 is the average number of charge TMs that you get per raid based on the number of drops assumed.Column 4 is the number of average raids needed for a chrage TM. This is 1/column 3. Yes - you would need on average 62 raids in tier 1 to get a charge TM but should get a charge TM on average every second legendary raid.Column 5 is calculated using binominal distribution - the number of drops needed to get a chance of >99% to get at least a single charge TM. The reason for 99% - if you are not in the bottom 1% then I won't call you extremly unlucky. I need to use drops as this is how the binominal distribution works.Column 6 is the number of raids. In principle all I do is divide the number of drops by the average number of raids for that tier.Now there is one issue with these numbers - they are based on the SilphRoad article http://ift.tt/2vUtTFK. Drop rates have changed since introduction of the potions.Apply a factor of 1.5 to 2 to all numbers to ajust.So back to the original question of /u/isaacpeverell - how unlucky is it to get 46 raids plus 14 legendary raids. You can call yourself officially unlucky as you surely are in the bottom 1% of people in regard to number of charge TMs received. I would need exact numbers of raids/tiers/balls received to calculate it more accurately - but it is below 1% for sure. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2vXtszD