"It seems that raid bosses don't actually use charge moves on 50% of opportunities. This will have a big effect on simulation results. Consider helping gather data to help!"

#PokemonGO: Since we (gamepress) are planning to release our private simulator to the public, I have been bug testing simulations against real-life scenarios by taking data from YouTube videos of raids. In the process I believe I have found a mistake in the theory of how bosses work that makes a big difference in simulation results & wanted to share with the public.All simulators up to this point have assumed that defenders have a 50% chance of using a charge move when they have enough energy. This is due to research we did back in the day, but it was with limited data and it was before the gym rework & raids came out. This seems to be incorrect in general.The data I have taken indicate that the probability of using a charge move for 100 Energy charge moves is actually around 33%. This alone means that the boss' DPS has been artificially increased by ~25% across all simulators so far, according to sims. This will have a non-negligible effect on rankings.To find this mistake, I watched YouTube videos of players defeating raid bosses. However, I do not have enough data for all types of charge moves & more data should be collected to ensure that the results are accurate. The results thus far are:Energy CostProbability of CmoveUncertainty3311/26=42%13%5017/37=46%11%10031/101=31%5.5%Uncertainties are calculated as sqrt(n)/N, for example sqrt(31)/101=5.5%.There are two other possibilities which could be messing with results and could have further impact on simulations:-If the defenders choose their next move immediately after finishing their previous move, so that they can't use the energy they gain while waiting in between attacks.-Or if the energy from using a move is only actually subtracted at the end of the move, even though it shows it being used at the beginning in the app. Then there would be lots of overkill energy. This seems possible in light of the bug that recovers "phantom energy" after a move is used.MethodologyTo test how often bosses use a charge move, I need to know when they have enough energy in the first place. I found the average energy gain per second throughout the fight:EPS = DPS/2 = (Boss_HP/Battle_Duration)/2...and it turned out that about 2 seconds was sufficient to gain 100 energy on average. The boss was (for example) lugia with future sight, which meant that even in between consecutive attacks it would gain enough energy to use a cmove. But to be safe I only counted "opportunities" as attacks which were used after a fast move, so that the defender has a full attack & two waiting periods (~5 seconds) to gain energy first.I did not count the first four moves as opportunities just to give players time to enter the battle & to give time for DPS to ramp up. (see this DPS profile of a raid for why) I also stopped counting once I suspected that some players may have started to die, towards the end of the battle.The videos I gathered data from are:Lugia: https://youtu.be/TCPXjgreykA?t=288A few raids (did all except for skipping laggy times) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK5PjJNnAAgMore raids (did all up to about 1h30m) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OZVefIAh6YFirst frame, vs arcanine. Did only the first 2 vaporeon deaths... this was tedious because I literally counted energy gains for every fmove to find out if boss had an opportunity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7utyrbw-zw4 via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2w71AsE