"RAID spawns are very likely NOT nerfed"

#PokemonGO: I just had a look at a map which scrapes 619 gyms for raid spawns and counted the number of T4 and T5 raids which are currently either in the egg timer or in the active raid state. I compared that number with what we should theoretically expect based on this analysis:http://ift.tt/2j8sKK6 analysis says that each gym will spawn two raids on average per raid day, that a total raid day lasts 14 hours and 45 minutes from start of the first egg to end of last raid, and that 10% of raids will be T4 and 20% will be T5. Two raids per day per gym implies that the total duration where an egg or raid would be visible on an average single gym would be 3 hours 30 minutes. We also have to reduce the raid day duration by 15 minutes, because active raids are now 45 minutes only.So the probability of seeing a raid on a single gym at any given time during the raid day is (total_raid_duration_per_day_per_gym / total_raid_day_duration), which is (3.5h / 14.5h). The expected number of T4 raids when looking at 619 gyms would be (3.5h / 14.5h * 10% * 619) = 14.94, and for T5 raids (3.5h / 14.5h * 20% * 619) = 29.88.Looking at the map right now, I see 15 T4 and 30 T5 raids, almost exactly as expected. When I started writing this post they were 18 T4 and 26 T5 raids, which is still only a few percent off.All the fuss about RAID spawns being nerfed is very likely just a combination of anecdotal evidence, confirmation bias, and echo chamber. So better stop basing anything on anecdotal evidence, humans are inherently bad at grasping patterns behind random events... ;) via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2zs7ovz