"Earth Day Shiny Wailmer Hunt - Poll Results"

#PokemonGO: After roughly 27 hours of polling, I’ve managed to collect a total of 3,997 responses. Of those, I invalidated 290 for various reasons (see below for further information), leaving 3,707 valid responses.Invalid ResponsesI received a number of responses that were either obviously fraudulent/malicious, blatantly falsified, or irrelevant to the dataset. Responses were considered invalid based on the following criteria:Total Wailmer Caught: 0 (101 responses)Self-explanatory, but if you haven’t caught any Wailmer, you are certainly not going to have gotten a shiny and I didn’t want those to affect averages, etc.Shiny/Non-Shiny Ratios at 1:1 or greater (113 responses)If a player got 1 Shiny with 1 total Wailmer (or 2:2, 3:3, etc.), this again would affectNegative numbers (2 responses)Self-explanatory as wellErrors (5 responses)Entering zero after selecting that the player had found a shiny wailmer, or other “hanging chad” entries was classified as invalid, as I preferred not to alter the data and felt it best to just remove the result from the dataset.Fraudulant entries (20+/- responses)Responses varying from 20 Shiny for 30 catches, to 222222222222222222222222000 Shiny for 9999999999999999999999999999999 catches were considered invalid.Other (53+/- entries)I had a few responses indicating from 8,754 to 2 trillion Wailmers caught with no shiny. While 8,000 Wailmer could theoretically(?) be possible, i considered it unlikely and outside of the valid dataset.I also had a few responses with high catches and no shiny (high 1,678) and some responses indicating 1 shiny with low total catches (lowest was 1 for 3). These results couldn’t be ruled out as statistically impossible, so were left in. As well, the results for 3-4 shiny with suitably low total catches did not . I instead chose to include an analysis with and without those results (see below.)SummaryDescriptionTotalPercentPlayers that have caught a Shiny79221.36%Players that have not caught a Shiny2,91578.64%Total Valid Responses3,707100.00%Invalid Responses2907.26%Total Entries3,997# of Players% of Players# of ShiniesTotal # of CatchesAvg # of CatchesAvg per ShinyAvg with previousLowHighCaught: 02,91578.64%0361,165124n/an/a11,678Caught: 166717.99%66789,1351341346753900Caught: 21042.81%20821,98421110654030900Caught: 3180.49%546,265348116515601,527Caught: 430.08%1282727669509100900Total3,707100.00%941479,376129509509AnalysisAs you can see above, a total of 941 Shiny Wailmer have been caught from 479,376 catches, with an average of 21.36% of players finding a shiny. Players, on average, caught 129 Wailmer. Based on the above data, the drop rate can be calculated to 1:509, which is close to the predicted 1:512, as opposed to the other predicted value of 1:256. The percentage of players finding a shiny seems to support this figure as well. A drop rate of 1:256 would have resulted in average of 39.64% of players. A drop rate of 1:512 (or 1:500) would also explain the number of players, myself included, that have not found one yet, despite having caught/seen 200+ Wailmer.I also calculated the Average Drop Rate including just the previous “Caught:” group to see how much of a change the 3 & 4 Shiny catches changed the overall drop rate. Ignoring the players reporting 4 Shiny, the Drop Rate decreases to 1:515. Ignoring the responses of 3 Shiny lowers the drop rate to 1:540, but I have no justification to ignore those responses, as it is not statistically impossible to get 3 Shiny, though highly unlikely on as few as 60 catches. Either way, the drop rate appears to be much closer to 1:500 or 1:512 than 1:200 or 1:256.If I were to do anything differently, I would have asked for total number of Wailmer seen/checked instead of caught, but I’m unsure if it would have made a significant difference. (If anything, it would have made the Ratio larger, but percentage of players with a shiny seem to correspond well to the overall catch rate.) via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2FusB9p