"[Shower thought] Beyond 1500 Pokemon storage: Does Niantic have a numbers problem no amount of increasing pokemon storage cap space can solve?"

#PokemonGO: Introduction: Why talk about pokemon storage box space again?Although there has been much discussion about how great it would be for many if pokemon storage could increase to 2000 (as teased, retracted, and rumored/ supposedly leaked), I feel it has been under appreciated how new mechanics such as weather boost, quests, and luckies have greatly increased the rate of “keeper specimens” that have exacerbated box space issues for many (though not all) dedicated players. The latest new development here is the ability to create an army of lucky pokemon, which I have no doubt that many players will want to collect.Although I think that the short-term story to follow is a cap increase, in the long term I think that there is a bigger problem that Niantic will have to tackle, many trainers will continue to demand box space at a rate of approximately several hundred spots per year for years to come based on current mechanics. Unless the game can actually handle this, simply increasing the cap will at some point cease to be a sustainable solution.Some players (definitely not all) want to keep high IV specimens, sentimental mons from sentimental places, and mon’s for trade, different gender specimens (living dex), and good IV T5/T4 pokemon (See comment about this at end of post). This adds up among players that play to keep good specimens and have over ~20, 30, 40 50K plus catches on their accounts. Eventually, as I project, this will exceed the capacity of the current storage limit and current game UI. As time continues, players will continue to catch more pokemon as I will estimate below. Eventually, as the size of databases for game data and and the size of databases will increase linearly with time and the game continues to be played, it could become more difficult for servers, network traffic, and the in-game user interface to keep up.Results and DiscussionLet’s do some maths. Although play styles will widely vary, let’s take an example player, Ash, who is player in a well-organized area with good stop and gym density. Let’s estimate that Ash catches 50 pokemon a day on average (20 weather boosted + 30 non boosted), hatches 1 pokemon per day, encounters 3 per day through quests, and does 5 T4/5 raids a week, then we might get something like the following scenario for a player who wants to keep everything over 91% IV regardless of attack IV:The rate of a 91% IV or higher IV non boosted pokemon will be 35 of every 4096 (0.85%)For boosted pokemon, 91% IV or higher, 35 of every 1728 Pokemon (~2%)For hatched pokemon, 91% IV or higher, 35 of every 216 Pokemon (16.20%)For quest pokemon, 91% IV or higher, also 35 of every 216 Pokemon (16.20%)For raid pokemon, 91% IV or higher, also 35 of every 216 Pokemon (16.20%) with a ~70% catch rate for ~25 out of 216 T5/T4 raids.Outside of regular play, we need to make some allowance for special pokemon: research shinies, raid shinies, community day shinies, exclusive move research task rewards, sentimental location pokemon, mythicals, 0-0-0’s, level 35 low IV pokemon that are meta and luckies. Lets make an allowance of 6 per month of this kind. This assumes that Ash isn’t actively trading trying to make a lucky armyDuring normal play, such a player will on average get 20K pokemon per year and require about 600 box space per year. Results tabulated here:Encounter TypeKeepers, 91% or better IV per attemptsTries Per DayKeepers Per DayKeepers per YearNormal Catch35 of 4096300.2693.6Weather Boosted35 out of 1728200.41147.9Egg35 out of 21610.1659.1Quest/Research35 out of 21630.49177.4.Raid35 out of 2160.80.1347.3Special/Event PokemonNANA0.273Based on this we have around 20002 catches per year giving approximately 598.2 keepers based on these criteria, with weather boost and quest accounting for more than half. However, different play styles such as doing more quest encounters or creating more luckies would greatly shift these estimates.This is okay until you wonder what happens after multiple years from this point on with quests, raids, eggs, weather, and luckies:YearsTotal New CatchesEstimated New Storage Demand120002598.32400041196.63600061794.94800082392.351000102991.661200123589.971400144188.281600164786.591800185384.8102000205983.1[[Edit: I did forget to mention that I do not believe all 91+IV need to be kept equally (91 goldeen vs. 91 kyogre) but this illustrates that a significant portion of players having trouble with 1500 will have trouble with 2000 or more given enough time.]]Eventually, even with an increase to 2000, these players hurting now will run out of storage again. It’s a matter of time. Then they cannot play and make as many microtransactions, and then pokemon go becomes less profitable.Several months ago, a player from the verified level 40 club had a long conversation with John Hanke during a flight to Oakland, and the topics covered were discussed during a long debrief during the verified level 40 club podcast. (See Refs). Basically, Niantic had not considered increasing pokemon and item box space until gen 4 until the level 40 player mentioned that many players were being hindered by 1500 at that time. John Hanke indicated that part of the reason that the cap had stayed at 1000 for so long was to accommodate older model apple devices. Now, that those devices are gone, presumably, larger pokemon storage boxes could be handled by most phones, but at what point will there be serious performance stalls? 2000? 2500? John Hanke expressed openness to increasing the cap, but it seems likely that not all phones could handle scrolling through 2500 pokemon smoothly. If people keep playing, the demands on pokemon storage will continue to increase. In the future, Breeding for high IV pokemon may also exacerbate this problem along with the current quest, weather, and lucky trading mechanics.Conclusions:So what solutions are there from a players end?Trainers who like to keep living dex and high IV specimens of all species will be hard pressed to prioritize which mons are important to them. This will lead to tough, or not so tough decisions. However, there is not a one size fits all solution that can fit all playstyles and preferences.What solutions are needed on Niantic’s end?For players out of box space, in the short run, increasing by 500 can buy about 6 months to 1 year as suggested by my estimates and by the experiences of many travelers since the cap was raised by the release of gen III. In the long-term, the UI may need an upgrade to have subdirectories, or allow pokemon to be sent to cold storage where they are not immediately accessible, but trainers can recall them back into the account. I would encourage fellow travelers to brainstorm other solutions in the comments.TLDR: If Niantic wants players to continue being active for years, eventually many trainers will find 2K, 2.5K, etc storage inadequate based on conservative projections of the rates of finding ‘keeper pokemon.’ Some combination of the in game-UI, database size, and network traffic load will likely become an issue with the in-game UI on our phones being most likely to be unable to handle scrolling through the increasing amount of pokemon inventory data. A new innovation is required to allow active players to continue to be active to keep players active with a play style that involves collecting varied specimens.PS Comment: There is a legitimate point of view along the lines of, “well, I play a lot and caught, 75000 mons and only need 1100 box space so far because I throw away what is not important.” We know that you cannot trade something like a 100 IV skitty and preserve IVs, leading many to dump these mons, but others still want to keep these as collectibles or in case Niantic implements an egg group system similar to the main series games or changes the battle system to include statuses, etc.References:I calculated the estimated numbers using this excellent tool: https://ift.tt/2Apq3fH Discussion about the John Hanke Interview on Various Topics Including Storage:https://ift.tt/2mUqqoC via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2viQ3TV