"Update: 7KM Egg Hatch Rates"

#PokemonGO: TL,DR: Regionals appear to have an equal chance of hatching, not different rates as claimed earlier (~1/32 each), as do Porygon/Tangela (~2/32 each) and Alolan mons (~4/32 each). Need more reports to confirm!Hey fellow trainers! I created an infographic yesterday that has gotten a lot of attention. I wanted to provide an update, and ask for your help - including more of your reports on eggs, and anyone with statistical analysis who can help me interpret the results. (The data is here. I will update it with the additional ~700 eggs when I get a chance).I do not want to step on anyone's toes. The Silph Research Group does an incredible job. To my knowledge there is no project yet to observe the new 7km hatch rates, but very strong interest in them. That's why I did this to begin with.Given the large number of eggs (3698), I'm very comfortable my original conclusion - 12.5% chance for the regional group, 12.5% chance for the Porygon/Tangela group, and 75% chance for the Alolan group. This particularly makes sense because of the egg rarity proportions Niantic has historically used. As ratios, these percentages fit a 1:2:4 ratio. (Thanks u/DiveBear for pointing this out.)This is what such a distribution would look like.PokemonRateChanceRarityDiglett4/3212.5%CommonGeodude4/3212.5%CommonGrimer4/3212.5%CommonMeowth4/3212.5%CommonSandshrew4/3212.5%CommonVulpix4/3212.5%CommonPorygon2/326.25%UncommonTangela2/326.25%UncommonFarfetch'd1/323.125%RareKangaskhan1/323.125%RareMr. Mime1/323.125%RareTauros1/323.125%Rare​The actual results found are as follows. This is based on all 3698 eggs.EggsPercent of EggsRegional52314.1%Not Regional317585.9%​Because most users simply reported hatches as regional or non-regional, there is less data on the distribution of Alolan vs. the Porygon/Tangela group (we know for 1249 eggs). The specific Pokemon hatched from the non-regional eggs was even less common (963 eggs).​My first time around, the raw data showed Kangaskhan and Tauros both quite higher, but it was a mistake to float this idea while there was not a larger sample. Now with 523 regional hatches, of which we know the Pokemon for 467 of them, it is more clear.RegionalsPokemonTotal Eggs% of Regional EggsTauros13228.3%Farfetch'd9821.0%Mr. Mime11725.1%Kangaskhan12025.7%We can see from this that they are all roughly around 25%, and we have no reason to believe Niantic would boost certain ones over others. (I imagine Tauros are being over-represented because there are a ton of North America users frustrated they are getting their own regional, and thus biasing the selection).​Alolan​PokemonTotal Eggs% of Alolan Eggs*Diglett13917.6%Geodude13116.6%Grimer10112.8%Meowth16020.3%Sandshrew14318.1%Vulpix11414.5%\Total adds up to 99.9% due to rounding*If the Alolans have an equal chance, we would expect them to be 16.6% each. The Geodude is this exactly, while the others deviate only slightly from this. Grimer (-3.8%), Vulpix (-2.1%). Meowth (+3.7%), Sandshrew (+1.5%), Diglett (+1.0%). If there was small tiering within the Alolan group, we would need a larger sample. But this just isn't Niantic's style.The previous Alolan group had a 1:4 ratio, and before that a 1:4:8 ratio, so we would expect much more pronounced differences if this was the case. via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2NkTgOZ