"Rough Shiny Odds for Ponyta and Cubone in the Event"

#PokemonGO: This is a follow up to a survey I solicited yesterday. Thanks to those who humored me. I don't actually pull off a statistical analysis, as a fair warning. I know the TSR research group will come out with a much better result than I did.Hypothesis: There is bias in shiny luck between Pokemon Go teams, to play off the Ingress factions and how Shiny Cubone and Shiny Ponyta represented them.Method: Google Forms survey link submitted to The Silph Road which asked 5 questions: Total encounters and Shiny encounters for each species, plus the team they were signed up with.Conclusion: No. Very unlikely to be the case.However:Results to be taken with a grain of salt:https://ift.tt/2QsxrdG respondents: 336.1/120 odds for Cubone, 1/162 odds for Ponyta. That's roughly 3.75x as high as normal for Cubone, 2.8x as high for Ponyta (based on 1/450 normal rate). Instinct had the hardest of luck while Valor had the best of luck; Mystic's numbers aligned well with the all-teams average.(The 3.75x and 2.8x odds may be underestimating due to times in the game -- absence of weather -- suspected to have had non-boosted odds.)Nonetheless, I found it curious that Cubone was reported to be more common than Ponyta.Just as ancillary info, 88 respondents had better Ponyta luck than Cubone, and 77 ended up finding more Shiny Ponyta than Shiny Cubone. There wasn't a major difference between teams. Flipping it around, 133 respondents had better Cubone luck than Ponyta, with 113 respondents finding more Shiny Cubone than Ponyta. And to round it out, 115 respondents had the same shiny rate between species (108 at none of either), of a total 146 respondents finding the same number of Shiny Cubone as Shiny Ponyta (only 38 respondents having ≥1 of each.)You can see data here; feel free to save your own copy and check it out yourself.https://ift.tt/2qwjuQC few answers were struck out as trolling, i.e. 42000 encounters and 69 shinies, or patently false such as more shinies found than total encounters for the species.Limitations: Biased results (only those in /new found it, people who thought their data was more interesting may have been more likely to submit than someone thinking their luck was typical), participants may not have had carefully tracked numbers, weather was not controlled for (as it seemed when weather was off in areas, shiny rates were not boosted), teamless players were excluded.Edit: Typo, and scratching a repeated sentence. via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2D4WsYB