"Some shiny conclusions from simple mathematics."

#PokemonGO: Conclusion 1: You may not shiny check as hard as you think you do.Reasoning: If the chance of getting a shiny is 1/450:The chance of shiny checking 1035 without a single shiny is 10%;The chance of shiny checking 2070 without a single shiny is 1%;The chance of shiny checking 3105 without a single shiny is 0.1%;If you think you are the most unlucky subscriber in this sub, you have to shiny check 5825 without getting a shiny.As for the raids, which has 1/20 shiny rate, in order to become the most unlucky subscriber in this sub, you have to do 252 raids without a single shiny encounter.Conclusion 2: You may not be as lucky as you think you are.Reasoning: If the chance of getting a shiny is 1/450:On average, 945 subscribers will get a shiny on their first encounter.The chance that none of the subscribers's first encounter are shiny is whopping 2.25*10-411.Conclusion 3: You will be lucky on the long run.Reasoning: There are over 800 Pokemons and almost 50 legendaries in Pokemon series. Let's say conservatively you can encounter 400 that can be shiny in the wild and you can encounter 40 legendaries from either raids or research.There is 59% chance of getting shiny at first wild encounter among those 400 Pokemons and there is 87% chance of getting shiny at first raid or research encounter among those 40 legendary pokemons.Worst case scenario, if you ARE the most unlucky subscriber in this sub, you only need to shiny check 14 times of each 400 pokemons before you get a shiny and you only need to have done 7 raids/research breakthrough of each 40 legendaries before you get a shiny.Note: Let me know if i have made any mistake. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://bit.ly/2Jm6aci