"(Another) Shiny rates compilation"

#PokemonGO: I figured that since it's been a while since we had a Shiny rates compilation, I want to make an update on it, and also include what may be some perceived holes (that hopefully can be answered in the comments).​SpawnRateReferencesBase wild encounter1/450The Shiny Hunt (Part 1)Special Raid Challenge (Raid Day)1/10The Eve of Moltres Day: Legendary Bird Shiny Rates, Legendary Bird Shiny Rates: Moltres!, Lapras Raid Day: Shiny Rate, Legendary Raid Day: Raikou Shiny Rates,Legendary Pokemon (Raid & Research Breakthrough)1/20Cresselia Shiny Rate, A Legendary Return: Kyogre Shiny Rate, A Legendary Return: Groudon Shiny RateLimited Research (e.g. Feebas, Clamperl and Lotad)1/20Swimming with Feebas: Limited Research Shiny RatesCommunity Day spawns1/25The Shiny Hunt (Part II)Community Day Celebration (2018)1/90Shiny Rates on December's "Community Weekend"Event-highlighted "rare" Pokemon1/60 or 1/50***The Shiny Hunt (Part III), Adventure Week Shiny Rates, Alolan Pokemon Shiny RatesEvent-highlighted "uncommon" Pokemon1/165Extraordinary Raid Week: Bronzor Shiny RateEvent-highlighted "common" Pokemon1/450 (unboosted)Lunar New Year: Lucky Boosts & Shiny Spoink, Detective Pikachu Event: Aipom Shiny RateHighlighted Pokemon for short events (~3 days or less)~1/150**GO Fest Weekend: Shiny RatesHatched baby Pokemon1/50The Shiny Hunt (Part III)Event-highlighted raid (Aerodactyl)1/45 -- 95% CI: 1 in (30, 95) *The Shiny Hunt (Part II)Mawile raids (Tier 2)1/35 -- 95% CI: 1 in (25, 45)The Shiny Hunt (Part II)Absol raids (Tier 4)1/75 -- 95% CI: 1 in (50, 135)The Shiny Hunt (Part II)Meltan (limited time)1/60Meltan Event: Unbolting the limited time Shiny rate!The table above has most (but not all) of the Silphroad articles about Shiny rates.*The original analysis of Aerodactyl had it at 1/45, but later articles have it revised to 1/60. However, this does not necessarily contradict since 1/60 still falls within the 95% C.I.**EDIT: Horsea is currently the only Pokemon from a short (~3 days or less) event that has been Shiny researched. Diglett from Earth Day and Shuckle from Safari Zone have also had boosted rates, but no data has been collected.***Due to the C.I., we cannot conclude that these Pokemon have different Shiny ratesUnreported Shiny rates:Alolan hatchces (most likely a WIP right now)Shinx, Alo Raichu, and Alo Marowak (other Raid exclusives)Highlighted species of short events (e.g. Safari Zone Shuckle weekend, Earth Day Diglett)Limited Research, non-Field Research spawns (e.g. Castform)Other notes and questions:Shiny rates appears to be fixed to a species rather than encounter type (you are equally likely to encounter a Shiny Onix via Egg, Field Research, Raid or spawn)Many earlier Silph articles have numbers that, on the surface, seem to contradict this later-reported theory, but their reported C.I.s do not reject it.For long-term events, event-highlighted Pokemon seem to keep any boosted Shiny rates (eg Onix and Pineco)From personal experience, past Community Day Pokemon appear to have a higher-than-normal rate of being Shiny (which is consistent with Niantic giving boosted rates for rarer Pokemon). Has there been any research on these rates? via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2RS3yoD