"Forced Migration Table if Stantler is removed for Holidays Event"

#PokemonGO: Hey folks! Wanted to get this out with plenty of time, since midnight on the 24th will come soon enough for early time zones. For those of you familiar with these tables and their implications/workings, proceed right ahead to the tables.For those not familiar with how these tables are made or what they mean:This table ONLY applies to a forced migration that may occur on December 24th at 12:00 AM in your local time zone when the event starts, and ONLY if Stantler being removed is the single change that happens. If more things are removed, or if more things are added, or any combination of those that result in Stantler's removal not being the only change that happens, this table is null and void. I will try to update as we learn more, but I am on vacation so am not going to be in a big rush to do so :)These predictions are possible because of some presumed mechanics underlying nests. The simple gist is that each nest gets a random number between 0 and 1 assigned to it at the time of scheduled migration. Each species in the pool of nesting species is assigned a range of values from the position of the species behind it in the species pool to its position in the nesting species pool in pokedex order divided by the number of species in the nesting species pool in total; for example, Charmander is the 2nd species in the nesting species pool in pokedex order, so the range assigned to it when the nesting species pool is 1/100-2/100, or .01-.02. Therefore, any nest assigned a value in that range at scheduled migration will have Charmander nesting there.When changes to the nest pool occur, that divisor is changed, which changes the range of values each species is assigned. HOWEVER, the value assigned to a nest remains. This means that the value some nests were assigned now falls into the range associated with a new species. The percentages listed in the table is the percent of values that fall into each species' new range, and is why in a forced migration, shifts happen in a predictable and somewhat uniform way and a species will not jump from mid-Johto to Sinnoh unless the species around it also do. I did not discover these mechanics, and do not wish to claim credit for it. I simply learned about it from a post here, so for more info about all of this, please check out that post here: https://ift.tt/2Zrymk1 that there is a scheduled migration on December 26th at midnight UTC (Wednesday in some zones, Thursday in others, as usual). This table will not be precise for the forced migration when/if Stantler is returned to the nesting species pool at the end of the event, and I will try to post another one if somebody else does not do so before then. So basically, this table is only helpful for a little over a day. But that day may be a good day for some players and I want to make sure people know what to expect, assuming no other unexpected changes occur. We will know ifAs usual, I hope this helps. If things don't look right, please try to comment. But do keep in mind that gigantic leaps in species is especially unlikely for this, as there's only one species removed... maybe two or three at most. You won't see leaps between regions, unless huuuuge changes happen. If I point this out in a comment, I am not trying to be rude to you, and I still appreciate your report.Thanks, and happy hunting!Edit: I have added the Stantler+Pikachu removal table just in case :)FORCED MIGRATION TABLE IF JUST STANTLER IS REMOVED FROM THE POOL:​Old SpeciesNew Species 1New Species 2BulbasaurN/aBulbasaur (100%)CharmanderBulbasaur (1%)Charmander (99%)SquirtleCharmander (2%)Squirtle (98%)PikachuSquirtle (3%)Pikachu (97%)ClefairyPikachu (4%)Clefairy (96%)VulpixClefairy (5.1%)Vulpix (94.9%)OddishVulpix (6.1%)Oddish (93.9%)PsyduckOddish (7.1%)Psyduck (92.9%)GrowlithePsyduck (8.1%)Growlithe (91.9%)PoliwagGrowlithe (9.1%)Poliwag (90.9%)AbraPoliwag (10.1%)Abra (89.9%)MachopAbra (11.1%)Machop (88.9%)TentacoolMachop (12.1%)Tentacool (88.9%)PonytaTentacool (13.1%)Ponyta (87.9%)MagnemitePonyta (14.1%)Magnemite (86.9%)DoduoMagnemite (15.2%)Doduo (84.8%)SeelDoduo (16.2%)Seel (83.8%)ShellderSeel (17.2%)Shellder (82.8%)GastlyShellder (18.2%)Gastly (81.8%)OnixGastly (19.2%)Onix (80.8%)VoltorbOnix (20.2%)Voltorb (79.8%)ExeggcuteVoltorb (21.2%)Exeggcute (78.8%)CuboneExeggcute (22.2%)Cubone (77.8%)RhyhornCubone (23.2%)Rhyhorn (76.8%)HorseaRhyhorn (24.2%)Horsea (75.8%)ScytherHorsea (25.3%)Scyther (74.7%)JynxScyther (26.3%)Jynx (73.7%)ElectabuzzJynx (27.3%)Electabuzz (72.7%)MagmarElectabuzz (28.3%)Magmar (71.7%)PinsirMagmar (29.3%)Pinsir (70.7%)MagikarpPinsir (30.3%)Magikarp (69.7%)EeveeMagikarp (31.3%)Eevee (68.7%)OmanyteEevee (32.3%)Omanyte (67.7%)KabutoOmanyte (33.3%)Kabuto (66.7%)ChikoritaKabuto (34.3%)Chikorita (65.7%)CyndaquilChikorita (35.4%)Cyndaquil (64.6%)TotodileCyndaquil (36.4%)Totodile (63.6%)ChinchouTotodile (37.4%)Chinchou (62.6%)SudowoodoChinchou (38.4%)Sudoowodo (61.6%)AipomSudowoodo (39.4%)Aipom (60.6%)YanmaAipom (40.4%)Yanma (59.6%)MisdreavusYanma (41.4%)Misdreavus (58.6%)WobbuffetMisdreavus (42.4%)Wobbuffet (57.6%)GirafarigWobbuffet (43.4%)Girafarig (56.6%)DunsparceGirafarig (44.4%)Dunsparce (55.6%)SnubbullDunsparce (45.5%)Snubbull (54.5%)QwilfishSnubbull (46.5%)Qwilfish (53.5%)ShuckleQwilfish (47.5%)Shuckle (52.5%)SneaselShuckle (48.5%)Sneasel (51.5%)TeddiursaSneasel (49.5%)Teddiursa (50.5%)SwinubTeddiursa (50.5%)Swinub (49.5%)MantineSwinub (51.5%)Mantine (48.5%)SkarmoryMantine (52.5%)Skarmory (47.5%)PhanpySkarmory (53.5%)Phanpy (46.5%)StantlerPhanpy (54.5%)Treecko (45.5%)TreeckoTreecko (55.6%)Torchic (44.4%)TorchicTorchic (56.6%)Mudkip (43.4%)MudkipMudkip (57.6%)Poochyena (42.4%)PoochyenaPoochyena (58.6%)Seedot (41.4%)SeedotSeedot (59.6%)Wingull (40.4%)WingullWingull (60.6%)Surskit (39.4%)SurskitSurskit (61.6%)Shroomish (38.4%)ShroomishShroomish (62.6%)Makuhita (37.4%)MakuhitaMakuhita (63.6%)Nosepass (36.4%)NosepassNosepass (64.6%)Skitty (35.4%)SkittySkitty (65.7%)Sableye (34.3%)SableyeSableye (66.7%)Meditite (33.3%)MedititeMeditite (67.7%)Electrike (32.3%)ElectrikeElectrike (68.7%)Plusle (31.3%)PluslePlusle (69.7%)Minun (30.3%)MinunMinun (70.7%)Carvanha (29.3%)CarvanhaCarvanha (71.7%)Wailmer (28.3%)WailmerWailmer (72.7%)Numel (27.3%)NumelNumel (73.7%)Spoink (26.3%)SpoinkSpoink (74.7%)Swablu (25.3%)SwabluSwablu (75.8%)Corphish (24.2%)CorphishCorphish (76.8%)Baltoy (23.2%)BaltoyBaltoy (77.8%)Lileep (22.2%)LileepLileep (78.8%)Anorith (21.2%)AnorithAnorith (79.8%)Shuppet (20.2%)ShuppetShuppet (80.8%)Duskull (19.2%)DuskullDuskull (81.8%)Luvdisc (18.2%)LuvdiscLuvdisc (82.8%)Turtwig (17.2%)TurtwigTurtwig (83.8%)Chimchar (16.2%)ChimcharChimchar (84.8%)Piplup (15.2%)PiplupPiplup (85.9%)Bidoof (14.1%)BidoofBidoof (86.9%)Kricketot (13.1%)KricketotKricketot (87.9%)Buneary (12.1%)BunearyBuneary (88.9%)Stunky (11.1%)StunkyStunky (89.9%)Hippopotas (10.1%)HippopotasHippopotas (90.9%)Croagunk (9.1%)CroagunkCroagunk (91.9%)Snivy (8.1%)SnivySnivy (92.9%)Tepig (7.1%)TepigTepig (93.9%)Oshawott (6.1%)OshawottOshawott (94.9%)Patrat (5.1%)PatratPatrat (96%)Lillipup (4%)LillipupLillipup (97%)Purrloin (3%)PurrloinPurrloin (98%)Blitzle (2%)BlitzleBlitzle (99%)Foongus (1%)FoongusFoongus (100%)N/aFORCED MIGRATION TABLE IF PIKACHU AND STANTLER ARE BOTH REMOVED FROM THE POOL:​Old SpeciesNew Species 1New Species 2BulbasaurN/aBulbasaur (100%)CharmanderBulbasaur (2%)Charmander (98%)SquirtleCharmander (4.1%)Squirtle (95.9%)PikachuSquirtle (6.1%)Clefairy (93.9%)ClefairyClefairy (8.2%)Vulpix (91.8%)VulpixVulpix (10.2%)Oddish (89.8%)OddishOddish (12.2%)Psyduck (87.8%)PsyduckPsyduck (14.3%)Growlithe (85.7%)GrowlitheGrowlithe (16.3%)Poliwag (83.7%)PoliwagPoliwag (18.4%)Abra (81.6%)AbraAbra (20.4%)Machop (79.6%)MachopMachop (22.4%)Tentacool (77.6%)TentacoolTentacool (24.5%)Ponyta (75.5%)PonytaPonyta (26.5%)Magnemite (73.5%)MagnemiteMagnemite (28.6%)Doduo (71.4%)DoduoDoduo (30.6%)Seel (69.4%)SeelSeel (32.7%)Shellder (67.3%)ShellderShellder (34.7%)Gastly (65.3%)GastlyGastly (36.7%)Onix (63.3%)OnixOnix (38.8%)Voltorb (61.2%)VoltorbVoltorb (40.8%)Exeggcute (59.2%)ExeggcuteExeggcute (42.9%)Cubone (57.1%)CuboneCubone (44.9%)Rhyhorn (55.1%)RhyhornRhyhorn (46.9%)Horsea (53.1%)HorseaHorsea (49%)Scyther (51%)ScytherScyther (51%)Jynx (49%)JynxJynx (53.1%)Electabuzz (46.9%)ElectabuzzElectabuzz (55.1%)Magmar (44.9%)MagmarMagmar (57.1%)Pinsir (42.9%)PinsirPinsir (59.2%)Magikarp (40.8%)MagikarpMagikarp (61.2%)Eevee (38.8%)EeveeEevee (63.3%)Omanyte (36.7%)OmanyteOmanyte (65.3%)Kabuto (34.7%)KabutoKabuto (67.3%)Chikorita (32.7%)ChikoritaChikorita (69.4%)Cyndaquil (30.6%)CyndaquilCyndaquil (71.4%)Totodile (28.6%)TotodileTotodile (73.5%)Chinchou (26.5%)ChinchouChinchou (75.5%)Sudowoodo (24.5%)SudowoodoSudowoodo (77.6%)Aipom (22.4%)AipomAipom (79.6%)Yanma (20.4%)YanmaYanma (81.6%)Misdreavus (18.4%)MisdreavusMisdreavus (83.7%)Wobbuffet (16.3%)WobbuffetWobbuffet (85.7%)Girafarig (14.3%)GirafarigGirafarig (87.8%)Dunsparce (12.2%)DunsparceDunsparce (89.8%)Snubbull (10.2%)SnubbullSnubbull (91.8%)Qwilfish (8.2%)QwilfishQwilfish (93.9%)Shuckle (6.1%)ShuckleShuckle (95.9%)Sneasel (4.1%)SneaselSneasel (98%)Teddiursa (2%)TeddiursaTeddiursa (100%)Swinub (0%)SwinubTeddiursa (0%)Swinub (100%)MantineSwinub (2%)Mantine (98%)SkarmoryMantine (4.1%)Skarmory (95.9%)PhanpySkarmory (6.1%)Phanpy (93.9%)StantlerPhanpy (8.2%)Treecko (91.8%)TreeckoTreecko (10.2%)Torchic (89.8%)TorchicTorchic (12.2%)Mudkip (87.8%)MudkipMudkip (14.3%)Poochyena (85.7%)PoochyenaPoochyena (16.3%)Seedot (83.7%)SeedotSeedot (18.4%)Wingull (81.6%)WingullWingull (20.4%)Surskit (79.6%)SurskitSurskit (22.4%)Shroomish (77.6%)ShroomishShroomish (24.5%)Makuhita (75.5%)MakuhitaMakuhita (26.5%)Nosepass (73.5%)NosepassNosepass (28.6%)Skitty (71.4%)SkittySkitty (30.6%)Sableye (69.4%)SableyeSableye (32.7%)Meditite (67.3%)MedititeMeditite (34.7%)Electrike (65.3%)ElectrikeElectrike (36.7%)Plusle (63.3%)PluslePlusle (38.8%)Minun (61.2%)MinunMinun (40.8%)Carvanha (59.2%)CarvanhaCarvanha (42.9%)Wailmer (57.1%)WailmerWailmer (44.9%)Numel (55.1%)NumelNumel (46.9%)Spoink (53.1%)SpoinkSpoink (49%)Swablu (51%)SwabluSwablu (51%)Corphish (49%)CorphishCorphish (53.1%)Baltoy (46.9%)BaltoyBaltoy (55.1%)Lileep (44.9%)LileepLileep (57.1%)Anorith (42.9%)AnorithAnorith (59.2%)Shuppet (40.8%)ShuppetShuppet (61.2%)Duskull (38.8%)DuskullDuskull (63.3%)Luvdisc (36.7%)LuvdiscLuvdisc (65.3%)Turtwig (34.7%)TurtwigTurtwig (67.3%)Chimchar (32.7%)ChimcharChimchar (69.4%)Piplup (30.6%)PiplupPiplup (71.4%)Bidoof (28.6%)BidoofBidoof (73.5%)Kricketot (26.5%)KricketotKricketot (75.5%)Buneary (24.5%)BunearyBuneary (77.6%)Stunky (22.4%)StunkyStunky (79.6%)Hippopotas (20.4%)HippopotasHippopotas (81.6%)Croagunk (18.4%)CroagunkCroagunk (83.7%)Snivy (16.3%)SnivySnivy (85.7%)Tepig (14.3%)TepigTepig (87.8%)Oshawott (12.2%)OshawottOshawott (89.8%)Patrat (10.2%)PatratPatrat (91.8%)Lillipup (8.2%)LillipupLillipup (93.9%)Purrloin (6.1%)PurrloinPurrloin (95.9%)Blitzle (4.1%)BlitzleBlitzle (98%)Foongus (2%)FoongusFoongus (100%)n/a​There's a lot of other options, including new species that are added also being added to the pool, random event spawns being spawn boosted and removed from the pool, and any combination of those... I'm gonna leave it at these two tables and see what we actually observe before I continue to add tables :) via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2tJbgtf