"Shiny rates between accounts (revisited and plotted)"

#PokemonGO: Earlier, I had started this thread which is now closed:https://ift.tt/2P3iKiz measured the "wild" shiny encounters and rates between two accounts with almost identical playing style and I've been collecting data since Nov 2018. I decided to write a small script to plot the cumulative shiny encounter rate between the two accounts and as you can see, after a year of playing there is convergence. Right now the two accounts are at 74 and 71 shinies but they've been running neck to neck for a while.The image and raw data are available from here:https://ift.tt/2uQnrWc someone in the TSR asked a confidence interval for this which I'm not sure makes sense (the hypothesis isn't about a single rate/range but whether there's something different between accounts that play Pokemon Go in terms of shiny encounters) but I do think a Kolgomorov-Smirnov (KS) test can be performed to determine how different the two distributions are and I think we need more data points to be highly definitive (P > 0.9) but right now it says the P is 0.63 (the lower the value the more different they are; with other real distributions I've used this test on I get very low numbers like 10^-5 etc. so here it is indicating highly similar distributions but can't say with near absolute certainty).Basically once you see the convergence, it should be convincing enough. My guess is that if everyone kept track as we did, we all would converge to the a similar rate (which is about 1/300 if you include all the boosted odds shinies and the egg ones which are in the mix here, which is why "wild" is in quotes but these are all wild non-community day encounters and hatches).--RamPS: Note the cycling up and down of which account is doing better over a few month long period. via /r/pokemongo https://ift.tt/2V4QT5a