"(Basic) Analysis - last 30 days of daily research tasks"

#PokemonGO: After a post about 31 days ago made some initial comments about the content of the daily research task, I decided to record what was in the daily research tasks each day to understand what they were.Some basic findings:The first two tasks are a pool consisting of the four tasks in the top of the table below. They appear to be randomly presented with no preference for one over another.The third task is either Make an Excellent Throw or Win a Raid. Now it may be that there has been a change in the ratio at some stage as the last Win a Raid task was 21 days ago.The last two tasks are again a pool consisting of the four tasks in the bottom of the table below. They also appear to be randomly presented with no preference for one over another.Here are the numeric results across the 30 days.TaskProportion (%)Power up a Pokemon10.7Transfer a Pokemon12.0Make a nice throw10.7Catch a Pokemon6.7Make an excellent throw16.7Win a raid3.3Evolve a Pokemon10.7Use a berry to help catch a Pokemon8.7Defeat a Team GO Rocket Grunt8.7Make a great throw12.0100If we assume that the 30 days are normally distributed (see disclaimer and area for further research below), we might theorise the following 'round number' probabilities apply:Power up, Transfer, Nice throw Evolve, Berry, Defeat and Great throw have a 10% chance of appearing each dayCatch a Pokemon has a 5% chance of appearingIt is unclear what to theorise about excellent throw and win a raid given it is unclear if there has been a pattern change to favour excellent throw.In terms of cumulative frequency of the pairs in each pool (eg how often Power up a Pokemon and Catch a Pokemon are seen together, etc) there doesnt appear to be any consistent pattern.​Pool 1 results show that Nice and Transfer are most common with Nice and Catch leastPCNTP13.323.316.7C3.316.7N26.7T​Pool 2 results show that Great and Evolve are most common with 3 combinations of other tasks least.EGDBE26.713.313.3G16.716.7D13.3BLimitationsIt may be that there has been a change to the probabilities in this time, particularly relating to Excellent Throw/Win a Raid given the dissatisfaction with the Win a Raid task. If this was leading to lack of completion of daily research, Niantic may have changed this to make coin earn easier.This is a 30 day analysis only. A longer period of analysis may be required. Consider these results indicative or preliminary.Areas for further analysis.I am not a statistics whiz and whilst I make a basic assumption that this dataset is normal this may very well be not the case. I welcome people to run some statistical tests where they see fit to check this and other statistical significances to add to the value of this analysis.Datasethttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HMcZzDewb4ghzvNub9JRXFK9uGuXYX_KN5V8uNDfNWo/edit?usp=sharing via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/3iMod9C