"PSA: a caution against confirmation bias and unconfirmed mechanics"

#PokemonGO: So with the release of 0.31.0 (or whatever it is for iOS), there have been numerous complaints of Pokemon being more difficult to catch, whether it's because they've been more aggressive or are actually more likely to escape from Poke Balls. I would like to caution against reporting anecdotal observations as confirmed fact.The first complaint is that Pokemon now jump more and swat away Poke Balls more. This is likely to be true, although now that pretty much everyone has updated, it's difficult to compare 0.31.0 to previous builds. However, jump/swat frequency is easy to test, and it's also easy to combat - just time your Poke Ball throw better.The second complaint is that Pokemon now stand at a different distance compared to previous builds. This is almost impossible to test (for the reason listed above), but it seems likely to be true. This change will matter less as players relearn muscle memory for Poke Ball throws.The third complaint is that Pokemon are more likely to break out of Poke Balls. This comparison is also now basically impossible to test, but I'm not sure that it's true. Here's where confirmation bias is important: you are more likely to remember failures of statistically likely events. You will remember the 60 CP Caterpie that broke out of 2 Poke Balls and escaped, but you won't remember the 10 60 CP Caterpie that you caught with a single ball. And for every user who complains on Reddit about a feisty low CP Caterpie, there are many more users who have not encountered that issue (I am one of them).Incidentally, there is a long-standing claim that Pokemon get harder to catch as the trainer levels up. First of all, higher leveled trainers see higher leveled wild Pokemon, so of course those would be more difficult to capture. Players see fewer easy-to-catch low-leveled Pokemon, so this influences their perception of Pokemon being difficult to catch. But users commonly cite the example of a low CP Caterpie or Weedle that frequently breaks free.I would like to advance a hopefully uncontroversial hypothesis: there is no explicit relationship between a Pokemon's CP and its catch rate. Only a wild Pokemon's level influences its catch rate. Because Caterpie and Weedle have such low base stats, a low CP bug-type larva can be of the same level as some other Pokemon that has many times its CP, so they would be roughly equally difficult to capture (since most stage 1 Pokemon have roughly the same species-specific catch rate).The fourth complaint is that Pokemon are harder to catch because something got changed about the nice, great, excellent, and curveball bonuses. I would like to remind everyone that it has never been conclusively proven that bonus throws influence catch rate. The in-game variables corresponding to the bonus throws have a currently unknown function.Now, of course, I am not in any position of power over this sub-reddit, and I cannot dictate what its users do, but I would like to kindly make 2 requests:If you are uncertain about an observation, please do not claim or imply that such observation is true based on your limited anecdotal evidence. Run an experiment and report the results, or make a thread requesting other intrepid users in this community to do it for you.If another user requests corroborating evidence for an observation, please realize that your own small points of anecdotal evidence are very likely to be influenced by confirmation bias. Nothing speaks louder than numbers and a well-designed experiment. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2amIX6u