"Defining "Nests" and "cycle times""

#PokemonGO: NOTE: These are simply terms that I've been using throughout my own spawn point analysis. I realize they are not the best terms and don't mean for the community to stick to "my" terms necessarily; if you guys have better words for these ideas, then lets change them ! My post is meant to share the idea of cycling times.tldr; For nests that cycle, it is critical for players to know the cycling times (and dead zone times). I believe this information should be included in the Silph Road Atlas as well.First, a few terms:A spawn point is an individual point that always spawns pokemon at the same time, every hour. It has a 1-hour spawn cycle (for our purposes, 15min active pokemon, 45min dead zone). Its location is preset by the game and it will never move.A spawn point is active when it has a pokemon spawned and for duration afterwards until the pokemon despawns.The cycle time is the duration that a pokemon is active. For the sake of this post, we shall assume that all spawn points have 15-minute cycle times (in reality, its more complicated than that). In shorthand, we can say a point "cycles at" the start time of the spawn.The dead zone is the time when the spawn is not active. For the sake of this post, it shall be the remaining 45 minutes.A "same species spawn" (SSS) point is a particular spawn point that always spawns the same species of pokemon (every hour, consistently) UPDATE TO SSS: It seems there is no such thing as a true SSS spawn. All spawns are FSS, but have a variable chance to spawn (some more, some less). The definition of FSS has been updated accordingly (below). In other words, some spawns will generate a nest pokemon almost every hour, while some may be every third hour, etc. Identifying the cycle times is even more important in light of this.A "frequent species spawn" point (FSS) is a spawn point that spawns a specific pokemon, but usually to a timed pattern (every 3 hours, for example). UPDATE TO FSS: Reports seem to indicate that an FSS point spawns based on probability rather than a timed cycle. The probability seems to be different for different FSS points (that is, some are almost guaranteed to spawn every hour where others will only proc once every 3 hours or so).The "cycle frequency" can be defined as the probability that an FFS will spawn a nest pokemon. Not enough is yet known about spawn frequencies on FSS points, but as a preliminary approach we can tag them as "Frequent FSS" (FFSS) or "Infrequent FSS" (IFSS). Therefore, FFSS points will have a very high cycle frequency (nearly hourly) while IFSS points will have a very low cycle frequency (every 3 or 4 hours)A nest is a group of FSS spawn points that, when combined, consistently spawn the same pokemon every hour. (In the majority of cases, nests are also bound by map-based criteria, such as the boundaries of a park)A migration occurs when ALL spawns of a particular species at FSS points change to a different species type. This seems to happen approximately once every ~3-4 weeks globally . NOTE: Do not confuse cycling with species migrations.EXAMPLE: After the first migration, Bill Barber Park in Irvine was a Seel nest. Once the second migration took place in the middle of August, ALL Seel spawns (FSS) in this nest migrated to Shellder spawns. When the next migration hits, all Shellder spawns will change accordingly.Types of Spawn Points in a NestA nest is usually composed of several FSS points, which, when combined, spawn 3-5 pokemon of the given variety per hour (remember not every FSS will spawn every hour). Note: Nests sizes vary and this can scale accordingly; the numbers are given for simplicity.As a community, we need to decide our minimum nest threshold. What do we consider the absolute smallest size acceptable for a nest? Perhaps some statistics experts can tell me what combination of IFSS and FFSS would be needed to guarantee at least 1 pokemon per hour, and that can be the minimum definition of a qualifying nest? Feedback wanted!EXAMPLE: http://ift.tt/2cvgqzb (1 Kabuto FFSS and 1 Kabuto IFSS) Is this a nest? You can get 0-2 Kabuto per hour, but only 1 of them is realistically likely at any given time. Minimum acceptable nest?EXAMPLE http://ift.tt/2cjgsYW (1 Magnemite IFSS by itself) In one case, I have found a lone IFSS by itself. This magnemite appears roughly every 3 hours. Is this enough to be called a nest? I don't think it should be.Nest Cycles and NomenclatureSince a cycle is typically 15minutes, and a spawn point spawns once per hour, we can have at most 4 cycles per rotation.A continuous nest will have 1 or more spawn points active at all times throughout the hour spawn cycle. Alternatively said, the nests "cycle time" is the entire hour (there is no down time, hence continuous).A cycling nest does so based on the timing of its spawns. These nests will have 1 or more pokemon spawn during a given time period, but there may be periods throughout the hour where zero nest pokemon appear.EXAMPLE: Bill Barber Park in Irvine, CA is a very large nest that cycles from ~xx:45 to ~xx:11. It has a dead zone from ~xx:26 to ~xx:45 wherein no nest pokemon spawn. (xx:26 because xx:11 +15min spawn time) See this image for more info: http://ift.tt/2bNxf8s (Note that from xx:26 to xx:45 there will never be a Shellder in the park)If you show up at the right time (xx:48), you'll see 4 or more nest spawns, but at the wrong time (xx:30) you will see zero.What does this all mean?When identifying or reporting nests, whether to the Silph Road Atlas or otherwise, it is critical you report the spawn or cycle times.This is especially critical for nests that cycle. If I report Bill Barber Park as the best Shellder nest ever and you show up from xx:25 to xx:45 and don't see a single shellder, you would flag my report as false.However, if I told you its the best Shellder nest that cycles at xx:48 and has a deadzone at xx:25-xx:48, then you could show up at xx:48, catch 3-6 shellders, and know to leave by xx:25 without wasting any further time at the park.Double or Triple Cycles Some nests may cycle more than once per hour. Since a cycle is 15min and represents the duration of time that a nest pokemon is available and can be caught in a given nest, its possible to have varying up and down times. This doesn't change our interaction with the nest in any way, but is very useful user data to have.For example: The Gastly nest at Jeffrey Open Spaces Trail in Irvine, CA seems to be a double-cycle nest. The first set of spawns begin cycling at ~xx:01 (and thus disappear around ~xx:16). The second set begins to cycle around ~xx:30. Therefore, this nest cycles at xx:01 and xx:30, with dead zones at xx:16-xx:30 and xx:45-xx:00.I know my terminology is not the best; I made it up awhile ago while working on this by myself and I got used to it. I hope it conveys the ideas OK.Finally, remember my examples in this post used a simplified 1hr spawn, 15 minute active spawn point type. In reality, there are a number of different spawn point types that make this more complex, but the analysis for all of them is exactly as above. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2bR3jqw