"The results of 10 000 000 simulation battles (with clustered Charged attacks harder to dodge)"

#PokemonGO: TLDR: I wrote a program that simulates Pokémon Go battles which takes the proximity of defender's last Charged attack into account, making clustered Charged attacks harder to dodge. The important parts of the algorithm are explained here: The Algorithm. The results can be found here: The Results (the list consists of 65 different Pokémon species, ordered alphabetically).If a Pokémon you're looking for is not included in the list, that means that its best moveset (attacking or defending) is ranked lower than the best moveset of every Pokémon from the list.The algorithmI wanted to include into the algorithm the fact that Charged Attacks with 100% of energy needed are easier to dodge than the ones with 50% or less energy needed. That's why, in attacker's ability to dodge defender's Charged attack, the biggest role plays the proximity of defender's last Charged attack.The most important parts of the algorithm used for this simulation are linked in TLDR.There is a "battle time" variable included, and the battle keeps going on until one of the Pokémon loses all the health, or until "battle time" exceeds 99 seconds. If the defender's health is 0 when the battle is over, the attacker wins. Otherwise, the defender wins.SimulationsIn all rounds, these values were used:Attacker level and IVs: Level 15, 12/12/12Defender level and IVs: Level 25, 12/12/12Dodging ability interval: [75%, 100%]First roundAll 151 Pokémon species with all of their movesets were included, both as attackers and as defenders (total of 842 attackers and 842 defenders). A round-robin tournament was held, with each attacker meeting each defender once, for a total of 708 964 battles.After first round, all attackers with less than 485 wins were eliminated, as well as all defenders with less than 480 wins. Also, Mewtwo, Mew, Articuno, Moltres, Zapdos and Ditto were omitted in next rounds.Second roundTotal of 78 attacking Pokémon with 446 different movesets and total of 61 defending Pokémon with 348 different movesets were included. Another round-robin tournament was held, again with each attacker meeting each defender once, for a total of 155 208 battles. Additional 14 attackers and 14 defenders with the worst win-ratio were eliminated and didn't proceed to the final round.Final roundTotal of 64 Pokémon obtainable in the game were included, 47 of which both as attackers and as defenders, and 17 of which only as attackers. Considering movesets, that makes 362 different attacking Pokémon and 267 different defending Pokémon. Final round-robin tournament was held, but this time with each attacker meeting each defender 100 times, for a total of 9 665 400 battles.Each attacker had 26 700 battles, while each defender had 36 200 battles.The results can be found here: The Results (the list consists of 65 different Pokémon species, ordered alphabetically).Movesets in bold can be used as a guidance on when and where the stardust should be spent. There are a lot of factors which play a role here (what are the most common defenders in your area and what counters for that do you have?, what do you already have powered up so that you don't need to power up similar types anymore?, what do you use in battles often?, what do you use often for training gyms and prefer not to raise its CP? etc.), so this should really be used only as a guidance. It is based on the simulation results and battling experience.There were several testing battles prior to First round, to determine the most suitable level and IVs for attackers and for defenders, as well as lower and upper bound of "dodging ability" interval.Raticate was not included in the Final Round as he was eliminated in the second, but was still added to the list with other "finalists", as his best moveset is actually very useful. That's why the results list includes 65 different Pokémon species.ObservationsWhat would be the best Victreebel's moveset against exclusively water-type Pokémon? Obviously Razor Leaf/Solar Beam. But in this simulation with almost 10 million battles in total, Victreebel had a wide range of opponents and their types. That's why Acid popped up at the top. But not as the best Victreebel's moveset, rather as the moveset with the most battles won in this specific simulation. Consider that when analyzing the results. The percentages next to movesets are just the guidance. Important, yes, but the most important, no.Also, because the range of opponents in this simulation was so wide, for really strong attackers like Snorlax, Vaporeon or Arcanine, it is a bit difficult to distinguish their movesets. Further simulation would have to be run, with an adjusted set of opponents.Why is dodging ability so important?It is widely accepted that Zen Headbutt is a better defending move for Snorlax than Lick, but there are many factors to take into account. If Zen Headbutt deals damage output of 7, and Lick deals damage output of 3 against certain attacker, the formula for dodged damage gives 1 in both cases. That means that Lick is far better move against experienced trainer who dodges everything. Still, Zen Headbutt is better against inexperienced trainers.What is the average profile of trainers in your town? What are the most common defenders in gyms in your town? How well do you handle different durations of both your and defending Pokémon's attacks? Take everything into account. Consider your own situation when looking at the tables with results. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2eZzV0p