"Estimating Global Shiny Catches Per Day (And Why You Probably Shouldn't Believe Just One Shiny Report)"

#PokemonGO: Having seen quite a few posts claiming or suspecting to have discovered shinies, I did some maths to estimate how many shinies we'd expect to be caught per day globally and used this to decide whether one lone shiny report is worth believing.The result: when shinies are released, I estimate we will see 65000 caught per day, which a large amount. It should be overwhelmingly clear very quickly that the release has happened.A quick run through of my logic: We know from this press release that on average 533 million Pokemon are caught per day: http://ift.tt/2hYzV5t'm assuming that Niantic will take the shiny probability from the main games. The shiny probability varies from game to game: in Generation 2 it's 1/8192 but by Generation 6 it's down to 1/4096. I have taken this information from this Bulbapedia page: http://ift.tt/2i4OhP2 calculate global shinies per day you can simply multiply 533 million by the shiny probability. I chose 1/8192 as a worse case scenario and the result was 65000.Obviously this is a rough estimate. Player numbers have declined since release and so the current average catches per day may be lower than 533 million. Therefore I'm assuming that shinies are more likely to be caught if encountered and that this balances it out. Yes it's a crappy assumption but I have no other information to go on.The point is, even if Niantic choose to use the lowest shiny probability in the games (and even if my estimate sucks or even if Niantic makes the probability lower), the number of shinies encountered per day by the global community will still be high enough for us to be very certain of their presence.tl;dr: 533 million catches per day multiplied by an expected shiny probability of 1/8192 gives 65000 shiny catches per dayEdit: minor text fixes via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2hXO5nC