"Want a Togetic - put your walking shoes on"

#PokemonGO: A Togetic is likely the most rare of pokemon right now. What makes him so rare is that there are only two ways to get one: a) hatch a Togepi and walk (a LOT) or hatch multiple Togepi.So i thought I use some data published by /u/wyattpeak http://ift.tt/2hKs5Mo and do a quick calculationThe results show that you need to hatch on average 125 5K eggs to obtain a Togepi. Using his raw data we can calculate that while you hatch 125 5K eggs you can expect also to hatch 44 2K eggs and 14 10K eggs.Egg TypeNumberkm5km125625 km2km4488 km10km14140 kmtotal183853 kmSo to hatch your first Togepi you will have to walk on average 853 km. You will get on average 15 candy for a 5K egg - this means that you have to add a further 175 km for the grand total of 1028 km walked to be the proud owner of a Togetic.Off course nobody is playing 'average'. So lets look at the heavy spenders. With 9 incubators at all times you can reduce the distance walked to just 95 km. So walking 3*95km for 3 Togepi plus 25 km for the average 5 candy missing will mean money can cut your walking distance to 310 km. But even while throwing as much money at it as you want - there is a very long distance left for you to walk.Evryone who doesn't like these calculations: I'm fully aware of the effect called random. These are average values - these are values you can expect to walk if you want to have a Togetic. Random plays a huge role in cases of small probability.The chance of hatching 3 Togepi out of 3 5 km eggs after all is 1/1253 or around 1 in 2 million. So the chance to hatch 3 togepi eggs in a row is still higher as winning in the lottery which is 1 out of 16.8 million (might differ between countries and different lotteries - this is for 6 right numbers out of 49).But if you don't believe in winning the lottery then putting on your walking boots might be the best alternative. Or just be patient. If you started Pokemon Go now you should have a Togetic around the time you reach your golden jogger batch. Earlier if you buy incubators on top of the ones you get for free. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2hWowAE