"Rethinking Egg Distribution Theory"

#PokemonGO: Introduction:There is a great deal of discussion and analysis regarding 2K, 5K, and 10K egg distribution including theories on how/where to find 10K eggs, how eggs are sorted, etc. Frankly, the research results have not been compelling or definitive yet on almost any issue regarding egg distribution.One of the fundamental assumptions is that there is an algorithm or schema based on an egg being either 2K, 5K, or 10K. Accordingly, research and stats are collected based on the "color" of the egg. That assumption may not be correct.Hypothesis:Egg distribution is not based on egg distance at all, but by species. There is no formula or algorithm for egg drops based on distance (2K, 5K, and 10K) but rather is a weighted probability distribution based on Pokemon ID, possibly influenced by other factors (e.g., biome). The egg distance/color is simply a byproduct of the resulting Pokemon.Background:We know from the client side game code that an "egg" is really a Pokemon with a flag that it is in an egg state (PokemonProto, is_egg, field 10). "Capture" time and location are recorded (fields 14 and 22). The Pokemon ID will determine the target walk distance (field 11).Actual observation has demonstrated those characteristics. We know that the Pokemon that hatches is determined at the time of egg drop. We know that the location of the egg drop is now displayed.We also know that initially all eggs looked the same at game release, we had to just pay attention to the target distance to know which was which. Finally Professor Willow figured it all out and magically the eggs had different colors. We asked why wasn't that in the game from the beginning. Laziness? Or was it really because it was not relevant from a development perspective since the egg drops were determined by pokemon ID and target distance was just one of the attributes of a Pokemon. That distance could be changed easily such as in the case of Eevee.Implications:It's possible that all of this is a distinction without a difference. However, I think we may get better research results testing based on the specific Pokemon that hatch vs. the egg type.Instead of focusing on the percentage of 10K eggs, we may get better insight by focusing on the specific species, regardless of egg distance type, that are observed from eggs from specific pokestops for example. It may be more insightful to find that a Pokestop seems to drop eggs that hatch Shellders, Seels, Voltorbs, and rarely a Lapras, than to know it drops 22% 2K, 58% 5K, and 20% 10K eggs.Just some thoughts .... what do you think? via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2i0AfMW