"236 Eggs Harvested From A Single Pokestop In January"

#PokemonGO: Combined Species Info, tab delimitedIndividual Egg List, tab delimitedGeneral BackgroundPrior to beginning this research, I had only hatched three Lapras and three Snorlax. All three came from the Pokestop on which the research was performed. I travel for work sometimes, so I have harvested eggs from hundreds of stops across a broad range of U.S. states. Either I had a good candidate to research from, and focusing on it was a great idea, or the stop had no effect, and researching close to home during a Minnesota winter was quite convenient, anyway.The stop in question is two houses down from where I live, so gathering this data took almost obsessive-compulsive trips all day, most days, for a whole month. There are players who live many miles from a stop, so this is not so bad; however, there are players who live or work on top of a stop, and I am not quite that lucky. One mark in my favor is that I generally work from home and suffer from insomnia, so the egg collection times cover the entire clock, though my attempts to hit the stop were often separated by an hour even when I was actively playing/working.As I wanted to look at the time value of the data, I made sure to acquire at least .5K on each egg in an incubator prior to attempting to gather another egg. In this way, I could always figure out which hatch corresponded with which harvest time. Times listed are in Minnesota, U.S.A.'s time zone.If you have some use for my data, feel free to incorporate it with your own; however, please be cognizant of my next point: the Baby Event PeriodThe Baby Event PeriodThe first 40 eggs harvested during the month were taken during the active baby event. Overall for the month, I harvested 236 eggs.2K5K10K451712019.07%72.46%8.47%Here is the 40 egg baby event period.2K5K10K4261010.00%65.00%25.00%And the 196 eggs harvested outside of the baby event.2K5K10K411451017.37%61.44%4.24%So half of my overall 10K eggs came from the baby event, mostly coming from a reduction in 2K eggs during the event. However, I only received 3 babies from 10K eggs during the event. That means that 7 of the 10K eggs received during the event were not babies. Of the 10 10K eggs received after the event, only 1 was a baby.Here are the babies received and what those amount to as a percentage of the period's total.OverallBaby EventPost Event14595.93%12.50%4.59%So yes, I did see a marked increase in percentage of babies during the baby event, but that does not really explain why I received nearly as many non-baby 10K's during the event (7) as I did after the event (9) when the baby event only covered 17% of my total eggs. I will note that my data is not end-to-end for the event, though. If you only roll for species, not eggs, the only way this data makes sense is if they increased many 10K specie probabilities (not just babies) during the event, or (lacking solid data prior to the event) the post event rebalance included decreasing 10K probabilities to something less than what they were prior to the event. Or my sample is small, and this is RNG. I'd like to see more diligent data of this sort before/during/after the period.If I include the baby event, I received at least one of 63 different species (out of 68 species possible) during the month. The only species I am lacking are: Hitmonlee, Scyther, Magby (10K), and Lickitung, Porygon (5K). If I exclude the baby event, I am also lacking: Lapras, Aerodactyl, Snorlax, and Dratini; no non-10K species are effected.Unless otherwise noted, all future information will include the baby event data.The Biome QuestionGranted, some of the following data is necessarily anecdotal. I have not utilized a scanner to record every spawn in my area, nor have I been keeping a log of what I see spawning. Below I am referencing Frequency In Biome as a data point, but it is really just my anecdotal experience as a committed player. By biome in this case, I mean within two blocks of the stop. The stop is not in a nest; that is a valuable sister research project to what I am doing here, but it is not what I have done.Common: species seen multiple times every dayUncommon: generally seen at least one time per dayRare: seen the species, but sporadically, cause for excitementUnseen: I do not recall ever seeing the speciesSo let's look at biome influence in 10K below. I don't think biome is really an issue here. I have only seen 2 of the options in the biome, and while I did not manage to hatch one of two that are known to be seen in the biome, the probabilities of each of these (via whatever mechanic) is probably set too low for a biome inference to be meaningful. I did get my fourth Snorlax and Lapras from eggs (still only from this stop), but I'm willing to accept that as RNG until I see a more meaningful flood of said species from the stop or vast data on other specific stops implies you can't get them from some stops.SpeciesEgg TypeCountFrequency In BiomeOnix10K3UnseenSmoochum10K3UnseenChansey10K2UnseenPinsir10K2UnseenOmanyte10K2UnseenElekid10K2UnseenHitmonchan10K1UnseenLapras10K1UnseenKabuto10K1UnseenAerodactyl10K1UnseenSnorlax10K1RareDratini10K1UnseenHitmonlee10K0UnseenScyther10K0RareMagby10K0Unseen2K are the inverse of 10K. You have the babies that are not available in any biome and a bunch of other stuff that is just generally available. It looks like you can get more Charmander from eggs than you can from the biome, and that has been my experience aside from this official research, but I only have two official data point on them here. Let's set 2K aside for potential biome influence, too.SpeciesEgg TypeCountFrequency In BiomeZubat2K8CommonMagikarp2K7UncommonSpearow2K6CommonCaterpie2K5CommonWeedle2K4CommonGeodude2K4UncommonBulbasaur2K3UncommonIgglybuff2K3UnseenCharmander2K2RareSquirtle2K2UncommonCleffa2K1Unseen5K is where I find the meat of my research. If biome is influencing this stop, the influence is quite weak. It starts out well, read from the top. Oddish, Poliwag, Krabby: outside of my door every day. Then things fall apart. Ponyta and Doduo are top species? I have never seen them in the wild here. Eevee at the bottom may be a specialty case, but they are nearly as common as Pidgey. Mid-range options like Voltorb, Tangela, and Sandshrew are seen more than Cubone, female Nidoran, and Mankey? I have travelled during the course of the game. I know there are biomes for these things I have never seen here. Excepting Eevee, what this looks like to me is, roughly, a distribution that resembles how common the species is globally, pointedly not how common it is within your specific biome.SpeciesEgg TypeCountFrequency In BiomeOddish5K14CommonPoliwag5K10CommonKrabby5K9CommonMeowth5K8UncommonPonyta5K8UnseenDoduo5K8UnseenStaryu5K7UncommonNidoran M5K6CommonVenonat5K6CommonPsyduck5K5RareAbra5K5UncommonBellsprout5K5CommonTentacool5K5RareVoltorb5K5UnseenTangela5K5UnseenSandshrew5K4UnseenVulpix5K4RareDiglett5K4UncommonGrowlithe5K4UncommonMachop5K4UncommonMagnemite5K4UnseenHorsea5K4UncommonEkans5K3RareParas5K3CommonShellder5K3CommonGastly5K3CommonDrowzee5K3UncommonExeggcute5K3UncommonRhyhorn5K3UncommonPichu5K3UnseenCubone5K2UncommonGoldeen5K2RareTogepi5K2UnseenNidoran F5K1CommonMankey5K1UncommonSlowpoke5K1UncommonSeel5K1UncommonGrimer5K1UnseenKoffing5K1RareEevee5K1CommonLickitung5K0UnseenPorygon5K0UnseenThe Case For Streaks By SpeciesEarly in my research I noted on the Silph Road that I was perceiving a tendency for the stop to go on a run of a given species. I had experienced the same in my general gameplay outside of research. I wrote those comments at a point when I was still jotting my hatch data in a physical notebook. Now I have had an opportunity to step back. You are welcome to scrutinize my raw data, but below is what I think is happening.In my data there are 5 times when I received the same species back-to-back. (There are two more examples if you ignore the fact that the eggs were harvested 12+ hours apart; that might speak to something if the seed for species randomization is somehow trainer-based, but that possibility falls outside of stop research.) Seems odd on the surface. There are many more examples of receiving the same species within a few hours of the other. Let's assume the species probabilities are uniform: 1 in 68 for each (they aren't, but we have to pick a probability). If I said that I predict the next two hatches will be Magnemite, and the probabilities are independent, you would have a 1/(682) = 1 in 4624 chance of being right. You have to be right on the first egg and then be right on the second egg; both picks count. But that is not what we are doing in perceiving patterns. We are just seeing two back-to-back hatches that are the same. If you happen to hatch a Magnemite, the odds of the next egg being a Magnemite are simply the general odds of hatching a Magnemite (1 in 68 by our rough approximate); I hatched 236 eggs; this will predictably happen several times; you will have back-to-back species.I don't know what the true probability of hatching a given species is. I just don't have enough data to say. 1 in 68 has to be the average of all species. If the probabilities were uniform, I would have hatched closer to 3.5 of each species. Instead, I have 3 or less for all 15 10K options, 4 or more for 6 2K options, 3 or less for 5 2K options, 4 or more for 22 5K options, and 3 or less for 20 5K options. You can't use 1 in 68 as a probability for 10K options, and this means you have better probabilities for the 5K and 2K options.If the odds of getting back-to-back eggs of the same species were 1 in 68, I should have had it happen 3.5 times, but it happened 5 times. A true species streak where the probabilities of each weren't independent would skew my data, but let's look at my data, anyway, as it is the best I have at the moment. Note that the most of any species I received was 14 (Oddish), and that is at a rate of 1 per 17 eggs; at that rate, you would expect back-to-back Oddish once per 289 eggs; my data does not extend far enough that the odds of any given species becomes the most probable thing. Given the below species per egg counts, the average of where I had back-to-back eggs was 1 in 41 eggs; not 1 in 68. Only Rhyhorn is rarer than average in the data. The fact the these back-to-back hatches are generally happening in more common species seems to invalidate the idea that there is anything other than RNG going on with species streaks.Time Egg AcquiredSpeciesSpecies In Back To Back Eggs/Same DaySpecies Hatch Per 'x' EggsTotal Species Hatches1/23/2017 16:18StaryuYes3471/23/2017 16:36StaryuYes3471/26/2017 5:26KrabbyYes2691/26/2017 6:04KrabbyYes2691/27/2017 20:11ZubatYes3081/27/2017 21:37ZubatYes3081/28/2017 8:23Nidoran MYes3961/28/2017 10:41Nidoran MYes3961/31/2017 22:31RhyhornYes7931/31/2017 22:45RhyhornYes793Final Note On Perfect IV'sDuring the course of January, I hatched 2 perfect Pokémon, one Magikarp and one Poliwag. The odds of getting a perfect IV Pokémon from an egg should be 63 = 1 in 216 (6 because they only have individual values between 10 and 15, 3 because there are three values) if the odds of each are independent.In and of itself, two perfect hatches out of 236 doesn't mean much, but I have been checking IV's on all Pokémon, wild or hatch, since IV calculators existed very early in the game (yes, even on Pidgeys and Rats). The odds of a perfect wild catch should be 163 = 1 in 4096. I only have one perfect wild catch with a Collector medal at 9526; I am willing to accept that as RNG. I am now at 13 perfect hatches with a Breeder medal at 1398; that is 1 in 108 eggs vice a prediction of 1 in 216 for a uniform distribution of IV's from hatches. Maybe I am lucky. Maybe there is something there.TL;DR: I hatched 236 eggs from a single Pokestop in the month of January. It seems likely that my non-nest Pokestop is capable of distributing every species found in eggs, and biomes have no influence on it. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2kYjHqJ