"How TSR decides a pokemon doesn't hatch"

#PokemonGO: tl;dr TSR research takes great care in decalring a pokemon as not hatchable and multiple data points are considered before it is publishedThanks to /u/gustavomiy who wrote a list of unhatchable pokemon - the following was a reply to a comment but might be worthwhile to feature as a thread on it's own.There are several considerations which are done before a pokemon is declared no longer hatchable1) We assume the lowest rarity possible in the game now is ultra rare. This means at the moment our model predicts a minimal hatch rate of 1/315 for any pokemon. Having such a lower bound is important as a chance of 1/1000 or 1/million would be much harder to disproof.2) Random events can be calculated if you know the probability (or at least are close). We now calculate the odd of a pokemon not hatching as (1-1/315)n with n being the number of eggs hatched in total. This value at the moment is 0.00024 or in other word around 1 in 4000 for around 2600 eggs.3) We do read these forums and take into account reports that contradict our research. We also take into account previous rarity. Something that was common is unlikely to be suddenly ultra rare - and the probability not to hatch a common in 2600 hatches is neglible. So we might be content that the chance is 99.99% it is no longer a common but only 95% it isn't an ultra-rare either. For a former ultra-rare 95% of no longer being an ultra-rare wouldn't be enough.4) We try to enforce rigorous egg flushing. Data should only be accepted if a researcher cleared out all his eggs prior to collecting new eggs. This is crucial to ensure our data isn't compromised.5) We do get the occasional 'wrong pokemon' which shouldn't be hatchable anymore. We individually follow these up. Was the flush done properly, any input errors possible, etc. We got a few 'no longer hatchable' entries - ALL of these were early entries and could not be repeated - pointing to either that some pokemon where available a few hours longer in certain places or someone did mix up old and new eggs.6) We keep a constant eye on the developments in case something changes.7) /u/dronpes is making the final call for publication. I know he was concerned that we called Magicarp correctly as we had discussions about the chances it still is in the game.I hope this helps. We are not foolproof - but we try our best to deliver accurate results. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2meMpUz