"New rarity classes during Easter event - best guess for 1:2:4:8 classification"

#PokemonGO: First of all - a great thank-you for /u/JHVS123 for presenting 1144 hatches with numbers for individual pokemon http://ift.tt/2oEJEPe. Please upvote them for their great work. 1144 hatches aren't enough to get an exact 1:2:4:8 split. But assuming the same 1:2:4:8 split happens which I found for gen1 and gen2 - what can we tell?All chances given are n/150 with the 1:2:4:8 split for n.Common (weight 8): We are looking for pokemon with >49 hatches. Suprisingly - there seems only a single common pokemon at the moment that sticks out - Togepi. So this one is the only one which gets a weight of 8.Uncommon weight of 4: These should be less than 40. Nice to see a gap here as expected between common and uncommon. Anything > 25 should be in this category with a high likelihood. 18-24 is the grey area. Mathematically I would make the cut at 22+ - but we would need more data to tell exactly where pokemon in this area belong to.Rare weight of 2 I expect these to appear 9-21 times with at least one or two outliers.Ultra rare - weight 1 - I expect these 3-12 times.Rarity classPokemonCommonTogepiUncommonBulbasaur, Charmander, Cleffa, Gastly, Igglybuff, Machop, Pichu, Slowpoke, Squirtle, Chikorita, Cyndaquil, Eevee, Elekid, Grimer, Growlithe, Koffing, Magby, Onix, Phanpy, Rhyhorn, Scyther, Shellder, Smoochum, Tangela, Totodile, Tyrogue, WooperRareAerodactyl, Lapras, Miltank, Skarmory, Sudowoodo, Abra, Misdreavus, Dunsparce, Girafarig, Lickitung, Shuckle, Sneasel, Stantler, WobbuffetUltra RareChansey, Dratini, Larvitar, Mareep, Snorlax, PorygonNot hatchingAipom, Cubone, Diglett, Drowzee, Ekans, Exeggcute, Geodude, Gligar, Goldeen, Kabuto, Krabby, Magnemite, Mantine, Natu, Nidoran♀, Nidoran♂, Oddish, Omanyte, Paras, Pineco, Pinsir, Poliwag, Ponyta, Psyduck, Qwilfish, Remoraid, Sandshrew, Seel, Slugma, Staryu, Tentacool, Voltorb, Vulpix, YanmaChancesEgg groupChanceRelative ChanceExpected from 114495% interval *Common5.3%8/1506147 to 76Uncommon2.7%4/1503120 to 43Rare1.3%2/150158 to 23Ultra Rare0.7%1/15083 to 13with 50 pokemon we would expect 2 to fall outside the 95% intervalPlease keep in mind that some pokemon likely are misclassified between uncommon and rare. Also keep in mind while uncommon still has a weight of 4 that they are now as likely as formerly the common have been - same goes for the other classes which are as likely as the next higher class before. The reason is that all weights only add up to 149 and not 315.Some considerations how I did the classes:1) I used primarily the hatch rates from the thread mentioned.2) I have some TSR data but didn't use this beyond checking glaring errors as it is less data and I would need approval to use that.3) I kept certain groups together - for example Totodile (35) and Chicorita (23) should be in the same class. Same goes for gen1 starters.4) Keeping groups together is why I classified all current 10k as ultra-rare and all 2K at least as rare. Purely according to the date Sneasel is more likely to be ultra rare as rare - or dratini rare and not ultra rare. But we have here two overlapping binominal distributions with high enough chances to be either. We would need around 5000+ hatches to be sure to distinguish rare and ultra rare with a high degree of certainty.5) I used my experience from classifying all eggs since the Halloween event.Oh - in case you miss it - I don't believe Gligar hatches as 10k at the moment. It would be a 0.4% chance. Not impossible - but I would like more proof as a single hatch.Edit: Changed the list of pokemon into a tableEdit2: Thanks for /u/kaspergm to point out the inconsistency with Shellder and Chansey. This is the danger of cut&paste. Both inherited some older classification when I had less data. Seems I missed these two when I updated the lists via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2nVEpxv