"Understanding Catch Probability"

#PokemonGO: I have seen quite a few probability infographics which are extremely helpful. I have had multiple people in raids explain these probabilities incorrectly and state that it is only the last few balls that really matter. I feel like a brief statement of what these probabilities represent is necessary.Every single throw has a base probability of catching a pokemon. This probability is affected by a number of modifiers: curve, berry, nice/great/excellent. Most, if not all, charts for the legendary pokemon list these single throw probablities. Once you complete a raid you get X number of balls. Each of these balls represents a single throw, which has a catch probability as mentioned above. However, as you have multiple throws, a cumulative probability results which increases your overall chances of catching the pokemon.Consider catching a pokemon with a catch probability of 50%. With any single throw you have an equal chance to catch it or not. With one ball your catch probability is 50%. With 6 balls your catch probability increases to 98.4% (1-0.56). This DOES NOT mean that if you started with 6 balls and you didn't catch it with your first 5 balls that you have a 98.4% chance to catch it with your last ball. Each throw is independent and therefore maintains its individual catch probability. Do not think that your odds of catching the pokemon increases with subsequent throws. Once you are down to your last ball, your catch probability is at 50%.Consider this example: You have a bag with two identical balls, red and blue. You pull a ball out of the bag and put it back in the bag after each pull. The probably of pulling a red ball out of the bag is 50%. The probability of pulling the red ball out 6 times in a row is 1.6%. This does not mean that if you have pulled the red ball out 5 times in a row that you have a different probability to pull it out on the 6th try. The 6th try probability is still 50% red, 50% blue. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2wLobd3