"Raid Analysis [Extended Version]"

#PokemonGO: IntroductionA few weeks ago I posted an article about raid rarity tiers and a 15 minute spawn break based on around 3.000 raids I tracked. Now I was able to get my hands on a way bigger set of even more detailed data and I’m going to share it with you :) Raid rarity tiersI can confirm the suspected rarity tiers for each raid level: 25% of all raids are Level 1, 25% Level 2, 20% Level 3, 10% Level 4 and 20% Level 5. In my first smaller analysis it looked like all Pokémon from the same raid level have the same chance on spawning. Now with the new data, it looks like there are two exceptions: In level 3 and 4, there is one Pokémon each to break the rules and spawn more often than other Pokémon from their tiers. That’s Arcanine (Level 3) and Tyranitar (Level 4). Since I found the same increased spawns for both Pokémon in different data sets for different days, It looks like this is no coincidence so we really have some exceptions here. These are the total spawn numbers and percentages for more than 260.000 raid spawns:Raid LevelTotal Raids% (rounded)Level 165.70625%Quilava​16.41125%Magikarp16.59325%Bayleef​16.37225%Croconaw​16.33025%Level 265.65525%Electabuzz13.02120%Exeggutor13.17620%Magmar13.32920%Muk13.11720%Weezing13.01220%Level 352.95120%Vaporeon7.19614%Arcanine8.59216%Jolteon7.41214%Flareon7.41514%Gengar7.54814%Machamp7.34614%Alakazam7.44214%Level 426.19310%Venusaur3.77514%Tyranitar4.18916%Charizard3.78314%Lapras3.62314%Snorlax3.64614%Rhydon3.59014%Blastoise3.58714%Level 553.93920%Entei53.939100% 15 minute spawn breaksI already wrote about that part in my old article but In case you missed it: There are no raids spawning during the last 15 minutes of every hour (between x:45 and x:00). In case you’re living in a time zone that has a half hour difference compared to UTC (for example India), your spawn break is between x:15 and x:30. CooldownsAnother question below my last post was if there’s something like a gym cooldown meaning a minimum time span between the end of a raid and the possible start of the next raid countdown. The answer is: Yes! There seems to be a 30 minute cooldown between 2 raids. Raids per gym per dayThis also means that the absolute maximum number of raids that can happen at the same gym is 5. My analysis also shows that the average gym holds 2 raids per day with less than 10% of all gyms do not hold a single raid at any given day.# of raids# of gyms% (rounded)0115568,5%12791020,6%25603141,3%33575526,4%442833,2%5150,0% Raid dayA “raid day” lasts for a total of 14 hours and 45 minutes from the start of the first egg countdowns to the end of the last raids. But when does the “raid day” start? In Germany, first countdowns start at 7am with the last raids ending 9:45pm. But that’s not the case everywhere because raid times do not match local time zones. I only have limited data but it looks like “raid time zones” are split at specific longitudes. The 15th meridian east longitude splits Europe and raids in the east start one hour earlier than in the west. So trainers from Poland or even eastern Austria or Czech Republic are only able to raid until 8:45pm even though they are in the same time zone as Germany. So in case you were wondering about different raid times in different cities, check for longitudes. Btw raids not matching your local time also means that raids are not affected by daylight saving times. Somebody asked this a few days ago and that’s the answer. Raid hoursIn general, the chances for a raid to spawn at a specific gym are the same at any given time but you will find more raids overall if there are more “free” gyms where a raid could possibly start. So right after the start of the “raid day”, you will find more raids than usual because no gyms are blocked at that time, during the following time span we see less raids than usual because gyms are blocked by raids or cooldowns that started during the first hours of the “raid day”. This effect is visible throughout the day. To show that, I split the time span from 10am to 8pm into 4 periods. I’ll just call them period 1 to 4 because they are not exactly 2 ½ hours long but 112 ½ minutes each (because of the spawn breaks).Time# of RaidsGrowthPeriod 145.497Period 249.231+8%Period 346.414-6%Period 450.048+8%So there are periods with slightly more and slightly less raid spawns throughout the day, observations of “always no raids nearby when I’m about to go outside” and “always lots of raids nearby when I have to work” might be anecdotal though 😊That's it for now, Shoutout to Gerrit who helped me out will his data! :) via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2xYKU6o