"Theory: EX raid pass distribution and Spoofers' contribution"

#PokemonGO: Why Higher Badge Players Are Often Left Out As Indicated By Anecdotal Reports Introduction:Spoofing activity at eligible gyms causes competition between legitimate high-activity players and spoofing players for limited EX raid passes, which dilutes the number of legitimate active players from receiving EX raid passes. A result of this hypothesis would be that higher activity players tend to not receive a pass, if comparison is only done with legitimate players. Another result of this hypothesis is that such a difference may not occur if spoofing players are included, and may even show that distribution of passes are in favour of more active players. Assumptions:In this hypothesis, Niantic's criteria of Gym Badge and Number of Raids at eligible gyms are assumed to hold true, and that those two criteria have an impact on the chances of receiving an EX raid pass. Spoofing players are assumed to have high level of activity in terms of number of raids and gym badge. Spoofing players and legitimate players are assumed to have the same probability of receiving an EX pass, when all other factors are constant. Discussion:In an eligible gym, two groups of players compete for limited EX raid invitations. These are the legitimate players and the spoofing players. Legitimate players are further divided to higher activity players and lower activity players. Spoofing players, on the other hand, tends to have higher activity as they are not constrained by logistical or time issues, and thus, may appear for many non-EX raids at eligible gyms. Gym badge and number of raids are stated by Niantic to be factors for receiving EX passes. To simplify the discussion, I will combine higher badge level and high raid number as “high activity” and the reverse as “low activity”. For the high activity group, there are two groups of players, the legitimate and the spoofing players. For the low activity group, the composition is predominantly of legitimate players. When players are reporting anecdotal reports of unintended and unfair distribution of passes, I assume that such reports only consider legitimate players. The result after a wave of EX passes distribution would therefore appear to be skewed towards low activity. This is because the probabilities for legitimate players in this group to receive a pass is not diluted by spoofing players. For the high activity legitimate players, their probabilities of receiving an EX pass is diluted by spoofing players, and thus, less legitimate high activity players appear to receive an EX pass. However, under this hypothesis, if one was to consider for both legitimate and spoofing players, there should not be a bias towards low activity. Further Discussion:As this is a hypothesis, I propose a method to validate this hypothesis. Players that observed biasness towards low activity players in EX raid passes distribution should attend the EX raid together with the players that had received the passes. If the EX raid has a high turnout despite poor physical turnout, then, spoofing player contribution to EX pass distribution cannot be ruled out. Levels of the non-legitimate players at such EX raids should be noted, and if the composition favours higher levels, then, competition between legitimate and spoofing players cannot be ruled out. Proposed Test of Hypothesis (Edit)I would propose the following to test whether my hypothesis is false or not:Proposed TestReasonWhat data to obtainPossible conclusion based on testOdds ratio for each gym badge levelTo determine if there are difference in odds between different legitimate playersPlayers’ gym badge level, and whether they obtained a pass or notBiasness of anecdotal reportsBreakdown between legitimate players and non-legitimate players receiving a passTo determine if non-legitimate player affect probability for legitimate playersNumbers of players (legitimate or not) participating in a given EX raidPossibility of different candidate pools, which was assumed in this hypothesis, if odds for higher badge are lower or not significantly different from lower badge levelsTable 1: Proposed tests for the hypothesis The odds ratio test for this hypothesis is considered failed if it is demostrated that higher badge level players have significantly higher odds of receiving an EX raid pass. The legitimate and non-legitimate players test for this hypothesis is considered failed if it is shown that the unexpected odds persist despite absence of non-legitimate players. Some Identified Issues (Edit)These are some identified issues: 1. Multi-account players may have similar impact as spoofers. 2. Some assumptions may not hold true. 3. Does not consider other factors other than gym badge level. Disclaimer (Edit)I have not undertaken a class on scientific methodology yet, and thus, please identify and suggest on what can be done to overcome those flaws. I have some knowledge on statistical analysis of data, but it do not seem to be relevant yet. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2ijKsGP