"Community Day, AKA Dratini Day: How I am Deciding When to Pinap, Based on Guaranteed Catches"

#PokemonGO: The next Community Day, Saturday February 24, we are going to have a lot more Dratini spawning. If they are as common as Pikachu were for the first Community Day, I want to be very efficient.Different players have different play styles - not everyone will find this valuable. I'm sharing just in case others plan on playing in a similar fashion and have thoughts to add.I played around with these websites to determine when I am comfortable using pinaps on Dratini:http://ift.tt/2GK5ZDE are some facts:You are guaranteed to catch level 1 or level 1.5 Dratini - they have a 100% catch rate, regardless of any other/bonuses. This is guaranteed to apply to any Dratini 27 CP or lower.You are guaranteed to catch a level 2 Dratini if you curve a regular ball and have a gold Dragon Tamer medal. This is guaranteed to apply to any Dratini 37 CP or lower.You are guaranteed to catch a Dratini level 5 or lower if all in the following list apply (This is guaranteed to apply to any Dratini 96 CP or lower):You have the Gold Dragon Tamer medalYou throw a curveballYou use an ultraballYou throw a "Great" toss (regardless of the size of the circle, provided that it does register as a "Great" toss)You have a 90% or higher chance of catching Dratini which are up to level 20 if you throw a "Great", curveball, use ultra ball and have a gold medal. This applies to Dratini 381 CP or lowerPokemon Go Plus:The Go+ is pretty bad at catching Dratini. The only catch bonus that will apply is the Dragon Tamer medal. I'll assume you have a gold medal. If the Dratini is level 12.5 or higher, you have less than a 50% chance of catching it with a Go+. At level 21 or higher, the catch rate is less than 40%. So, I will be setting my Go+ to only spin stops. I also don't want a shiny Dratini to run from my Go+. I'd only have it on if you are in an area with a lot of spawn points.TLDR: My play style for the event:Throw a regular pokeball and curve it for any Dratini below 37 and always pinap.Throw a "Great" toss, curveball, ultra ball and always pinap anything between 38 CP and 96 CP.For Dratini 97 CP to 381 CP, I will probably still use pinaps most of the time, while throwing a "Great" toss, curveball, ultra ball and pinap because the chances are still 90% or higher.For Dratini 382 CP or higher, I will not use pinaps, and will probably use razz berries instead.Why I Think Ultra Balls Aren't Overkill And Why I Won't Use Pinaps on Every DratiniSpecifically, why I'll be razzing Dratini 382 CP or above. Essentially, you want to avoid multiple catch attempts in the interest of time, so using razz/golden razz is probably better than pinaps in some cases. It's better to get a guaranteed catch on the first throw for several reasons:Catching 2 Dratini without pinaps results in 8 candies (from catching/selling) and catching one Dratini after 2 attempts with a pinap results in 7 candies, AND only 1 Dratini. Assuming these two options take roughly the same amount of time, guaranteeing a catch on 2 Dratini as opposed to taking 2 catch attempts on a single Dratini still comes up ahead if you are prioritizing candy.The more Dratini you catch, the better chance you have of getting Dratini with good IVs, especially doing this consistently over the course of 3 hours.This play style benefits people who haven't got the Dragon Tamer gold medal.Remember, there will also be TRIPLE THE STARDUST. Catching 2 Dratini means you get 600 vs 300 stardust (or 900 vs 450 with a star-piece running). (thinking about it this might be a good reason to have the go plus on... hrm...)This approach is pinap-efficient.I probably wouldn't have gone through the effort for most pokemon, but Dratini candy is at stake!I've somewhat arbitrarily picked my pinap threshold at 90% catch rate for myself. Some people might prefer 80%, or 95% or 99% or even 50%. I'd encourage you to use the catch calculator to figure out how you want to play.Please feel free to add relevant tips for catching Dratini! =)How I determined the CP a Dratini is guaranteed to be a given level or lower:Say you want a guarantee that a Dratini is a certain level or lower. Let's say 20. This is how I did it:Go to http://ift.tt/2sacw7E the IV of any Dratini.The website will give you several charts. Look at the chart which has the word "Level" above it, with an adjustable meter.Note how is provides the CP for "Worst Possible". This refers to a 0 IV Dratini.If I want to find out the CP at which a Dratini cannot possibly be higher than level 20, I would drag the adjustable meter to give me the specifications of a level Dratini which is 0.5 levels greater than the level I am curious about. In my example, we are curious about the CP at which a Dratini is guaranteed to be level 20 or lower. Drag the meter to level 20.5. The chart will say that a 0 IV Dratini ("Worst Possible") which is level 20.5 will be 382 CP. That means that it is possible for any Dratini 382 CP or higher to be higher than level 20. Or, it means that we can conclude any Dratini under 381 CP is definitely level 20 or lower - it would be impossible to find a Dratini 381 CP or lower which was a higher level than 20. I desperately hope this makes sense, or else the point of most of this post is moot.Note that it is not sufficient to look up a 100IV Dratini at level 20 to determine what the maximum CP of a level 20 Dratini can be. I'll do an example to show you. A level 20, 100 IV Dratini must be 504 CP. But, that level 20.5, 0IV Dratini we discussed earlier is level 382 CP, which is under 504 CP. Dratini between 382 CP and 504 CP might be level 20, or might be higher - so it's not reliable to use the CP of a 100IV Dratini at a given level, because then you're not actually working with guarantees, but just the possibility that a Dratini is level 20. Some higher IV, level 20 Dratini can be a higher CP than 382, but only those 381 CP or lower are guaranteed to be level 20 or lower.I know my explanation is redundant and repetitive, but I also used it to confirm with myself that it makes sense to prevent myself from putting misinformation out there. If there is something wrong with my reasoning and it IS possible for a Dratini level 20.5 or higher to be under level 381, please let me know and I'll remove the post. All of what I've determined here is also contingent on the websites providing accurate information regarding the factors which contribute to catching pokemon. I hope it's useful! via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2ED5v1z