"Did any Kabuto or Chikorita nests disappear during Community Day? Explaining shifts and looking for the definitive evidence that Dratini was a Nesting Species for 3 Hours"

#PokemonGO: Hello all,As reported by a number of travelers on Saturday, a small set of nests showed minor shifts in the nesting species during the Community Day event, as consistent with a forced nest migration. As hypothesized by several others, the change seemed to be consistent with Dratini being added to the list of nesting species during that 3 hour interval. I have R code that makes predicting nest migrations easier (I'll post the source soon, once I clean it up), and indeed, it appears that the shifts were consistent with Dratini being added to the nesting species.This observation was first reported by /u/Sugar_Rushed in the following thread, and the various species-to-species shift observation I refer to here are also from this thread: http://ift.tt/2FA0uav table below shows the two species each nest might become, with the proportion of nests that would be expected to actually shift to that species shown in parentheses.OriginalOption1Option2BulbasaurBulbasaur (99.1%)Charmander (0.9%)CharmanderCharmander (98.3%)Squirtle (1.7%)SquirtleSquirtle (97.4%)Caterpie (2.6%)CaterpieCaterpie (96.6%)Weedle (3.4%)WeedleWeedle (95.7%)Pidgey (4.3%)PidgeyPidgey (94.9%)Rattata (5.1%)RattataRattata (94%)Spearow (6%)SpearowSpearow (93.2%)Ekans (6.8%)EkansEkans (92.3%)Pikachu (7.7%)PikachuPikachu (91.5%)Sandshrew (8.5%)SandshrewSandshrew (90.6%)NidoranF (9.4%)NidoranFNidoranF (89.7%)NidoranM (10.3%)NidoranMNidoranM (88.9%)Clefairy (11.1%)ClefairyClefairy (88%)Vulpix (12%)VulpixVulpix (87.2%)Jigglypuff (12.8%)JigglypuffJigglypuff (86.3%)Zubat (13.7%)ZubatZubat (85.5%)Oddish (14.5%)OddishOddish (84.6%)Paras (15.4%)ParasParas (83.8%)Venonat (16.2%)VenonatVenonat (82.9%)Diglett (17.1%)DiglettDiglett (82.1%)Meowth (17.9%)MeowthMeowth (81.2%)Psyduck (18.8%)PsyduckPsyduck (80.3%)Mankey (19.7%)MankeyMankey (79.5%)Growlithe (20.5%)GrowlitheGrowlithe (78.6%)Poliwag (21.4%)PoliwagPoliwag (77.8%)Abra (22.2%)AbraAbra (76.9%)Machop (23.1%)MachopMachop (76.1%)Bellsprout (23.9%)BellsproutBellsprout (75.2%)Tentacool (24.8%)TentacoolTentacool (74.4%)Geodude (25.6%)GeodudeGeodude (73.5%)Ponyta (26.5%)PonytaPonyta (72.6%)Slowpoke (27.4%)SlowpokeSlowpoke (71.8%)Magnemite (28.2%)MagnemiteMagnemite (70.9%)Doduo (29.1%)DoduoDoduo (70.1%)Seel (29.9%)SeelSeel (69.2%)Shellder (30.8%)ShellderShellder (68.4%)Gastly (31.6%)GastlyGastly (67.5%)Onix (32.5%)OnixOnix (66.7%)Drowzee (33.3%)DrowzeeDrowzee (65.8%)Krabby (34.2%)KrabbyKrabby (65%)Voltorb (35%)VoltorbVoltorb (64.1%)Exeggcute (35.9%)ExeggcuteExeggcute (63.2%)Cubone (36.8%)CuboneCubone (62.4%)Rhyhorn (37.6%)RhyhornRhyhorn (61.5%)Horsea (38.5%)HorseaHorsea (60.7%)Goldeen (39.3%)GoldeenGoldeen (59.8%)Staryu (40.2%)StaryuStaryu (59%)Scyther (41%)ScytherScyther (58.1%)Jynx (41.9%)JynxJynx (57.3%)Electabuzz (42.7%)ElectabuzzElectabuzz (56.4%)Magmar (43.6%)MagmarMagmar (55.6%)Pinsir (44.4%)PinsirPinsir (54.7%)Magikarp (45.3%)MagikarpMagikarp (53.8%)Eevee (46.2%)EeveeEevee (53%)Omanyte (47%)OmanyteOmanyte (52.1%)Kabuto (47.9%)KabutoKabuto (51.3%)Dratini (48.7%)ChikoritaDratini (50.4%)Chikorita (49.6%)CyndaquilChikorita (49.6%)Cyndaquil (50.4%)TotodileCyndaquil (48.7%)Totodile (51.3%)SentretTotodile (47.9%)Sentret (52.1%)Hoot-hootSentret (47%)Hoot-hoot (53%)LedybaHoot-hoot (46.2%)Ledyba (53.8%)SpinarakLedyba (45.3%)Spinarak (54.7%)ChinchouSpinarak (44.4%)Chinchou (55.6%)NatuChinchou (43.6%)Natu (56.4%)MarillNatu (42.7%)Marill (57.3%)HoppipMarill (41.9%)Hoppip (58.1%)AipomHoppip (41%)Aipom (59%)SunkernAipom (40.2%)Sunkern (59.8%)YanmaSunkern (39.3%)Yanma (60.7%)WooperYanma (38.5%)Wooper (61.5%)MisdreavusWooper (37.6%)Misdreavus (62.4%)WobbufettMisdreavus (36.8%)Wobbufett (63.2%)GirafarigWobbufett (35.9%)Girafarig (64.1%)DunsparceGirafarig (35%)Dunsparce (65%)SnubbullDunsparce (34.2%)Snubbull (65.8%)QwilfishSnubbull (33.3%)Qwilfish (66.7%)ShuckleQwilfish (32.5%)Shuckle (67.5%)SneasleShuckle (31.6%)Sneasle (68.4%)TeddiursaSneasle (30.8%)Teddiursa (69.2%)SlugmaTeddiursa (29.9%)Slugma (70.1%)SwinnubSlugma (29.1%)Swinnub (70.9%)RemoraidSwinnub (28.2%)Remoraid (71.8%)HondourRemoraid (27.4%)Hondour (72.6%)TreeckoHondour (26.5%)Treecko (73.5%)TorchicTreecko (25.6%)Torchic (74.4%)MudkipTorchic (24.8%)Mudkip (75.2%)PoochyenaMudkip (23.9%)Poochyena (76.1%)ZigzagoonPoochyena (23.1%)Zigzagoon (76.9%)WurmpleZigzagoon (22.2%)Wurmple (77.8%)SeedotWurmple (21.4%)Seedot (78.6%)TaillowSeedot (20.5%)Taillow (79.5%)WingullTaillow (19.7%)Wingull (80.3%)SurskitWingull (18.8%)Surskit (81.2%)ShroomishSurskit (17.9%)Shroomish (82.1%)WhismurShroomish (17.1%)Whismur (82.9%)MakuhitaWhismur (16.2%)Makuhita (83.8%)NosepassMakuhita (15.4%)Nosepass (84.6%)SkittyNosepass (14.5%)Skitty (85.5%)AronSkitty (13.7%)Aron (86.3%)MedititeAron (12.8%)Meditite (87.2%)ElectrikeMeditite (12%)Electrike (88%)GulpinElectrike (11.1%)Gulpin (88.9%)CarvanhaGulpin (10.3%)Carvanha (89.7%)WailmerCarvanha (9.4%)Wailmer (90.6%)NumelWailmer (8.5%)Numel (91.5%)SpoinkNumel (7.7%)Spoink (92.3%)SwabluSpoink (6.8%)Swablu (93.2%)BarboachSwablu (6%)Barboach (94%)CorphishBarboach (5.1%)Corphish (94.9%)BaltoyCorphish (4.3%)Baltoy (95.7%)ShuppetBaltoy (3.4%)Shuppet (96.6%)DuskullShuppet (2.6%)Duskull (97.4%)SphealDuskull (1.7%)Spheal (98.3%)LuvdiscSpheal (0.9%)Luvdisc (99.1%)For more details of how forced nest migration works, see /u/Zyxwgh's detailed post here: http://ift.tt/2EVsX9A and my post here: http://ift.tt/2Fxuioc might note that for almost every single species, the most likely result was them staying the same species as they were before Community Day. Only Chikorita nests had a slightly greater chance of becoming Dratini than remaining Chikorita. And this is consistent, I think with what many saw - no change whatsoever. But those that did see change saw change of a single species, and particularly - a single species in the right direction.Almost all of the transitions reported in the linked thread have a relatively high chance (greater than 10%) of shifting - these are the transitions we would expect people to have noticed, particularly the ones higher up in the Kanto Pokedex (close to Dratini). There is, though, a dearth of low-Pokedex Johto Pokemon, and something that I can't explain, other than that people are more willing to notice shifts in those nesting Kanto Pokemon, and that people just weren't hanging out in parks with lots of Gen 2 starters, maybe.Current SpeciesShifted SpeciesOddsGrowlithePoliwag21%AbraMachop23%PonytaSlowpoke27%SlowpokeMagnemite28%OnixDrowzee33%ExeggcuteCubone37%CuboneRhyhorn38%StaryuScyther41%JynxElectrabuzz43%ElectrabuzzMagmar44%MagikarpEevee46%EeveeOmanyte47%OmanyteKabuto48%DunsparceGirafarig35%QwillfishSnubbull33%TeddiursaSneasel31%SwineubSlugma29%TorchicTreecko26%AronSkitty14%But again, none of this is diffinitive proof that Dratini was a nesting species yesterday--what we really need is someone who was in a Kabuto or Chikorita nest and didn't see any Kabuto or Chikorita during the 3-hour event. That would mean, that, very briefly, they were standing in a true Dratini nest. So, anyone?Edit: We now have a handful of reports of Kabuto and Chikorita nests that stopped spawning their nesting species during the event. So, yes, looks like a few of us travelers got to spend Community Day in the midst of a Dratini nest! This is something we will want to keep in mind for future Community Day events, if the Pokemon species is not a regular nesting species (although, as I comment below, perhaps Dratini is a special case). via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2oBnb6i