"Probability of Cresselia with 1500 CP or less"

#PokemonGO: After trying to get a Cresselia with 1500 cp or less for pvp, I wanted to know whats my probability to receive such a Cresselia with different friendship levels.For best friends, the lowest iv I can get is 5/5/5, so there are 1331 (11*11*11) combinations of iv I can get. Of these combinations, 54 have 1500cp or less. so my chance is 54/1331= 0.04 or 4%.For ultra friends, the lowest iv I can get is 3/3/3, so there are 2197 (13*13*13) combinations of iv I can get. Of these combinations, 419 have 1500cp or less. so my chance is 419/2197= 0.19 or 19%.For great friends, the lowest iv I can get is 2/2/2, so there are 2744 (14*14*14) combinations of iv I can get. Of these combinations, 747 have 1500cp or less. so my chance is 747/2744= 0.27 or 27%.For good friends, the lowest iv I can get is 1/1/1, so there are 3375 (15*15*15) combinations of iv I can get. Of these combinations, 1138 have 1500cp or less. so my chance is 1138/3375= 0.33 or 33%.Oh, and if you want to know how I did it, I am actually a littele bit ashamed. I created 3 tables in Mysql, each one only containing the numbers from 0 to 15. Then I created the following query:select *, (((atk+152)*(power(def+258,0.5))*(power(hp+260,0.5))*power(0.59740001,2))/10) as cp from test_atk, test_def, test_hp where atk>=3 and def>=3 and hp>=3 having cp < 1501 order by cp; It probably would have been easier in Excel or as a Google Spreadsheet, but whatever.TLDR: If you want a Cresselia with 1500 cp or less for pvp, you should try to trade with ultra friends, because you have a reasonable chance (19%), while still not paying huge amounts of stardust for each trade. via /r/TheSilphRoad https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/a4q2yn/probability_of_cresselia_with_1500_cp_or_less/?utm_source=ifttt