"PvP Analysis - NEW Sinnoh Stone and Rare Candy Drop Rates"

#PokemonGO: *** ANALYSIS WITH 12 DAYS OF BATTLE DATA SINCE RARE CANDIES WERE ADDED TO ITEM POOL \*\**INTRODUCTIONPvP item pool was updated a little less than 2 weeks ago. A new research project and analysis was started to determine the drop rates for Sinnoh Stones and Rare Candies. A total of (12) days from (760) reward-eligible Master League Training + PvP battles. The data was aggregated to include both Team Leader Master League Battles (180) and direct PvP Master League battles (540). This analysis has followed 15 unique accounts for 12 consecutive days 15 x x 4 x 12 = 720 reward-eligible battles.​Infographic: https://imgur.com/a/Q16uWii​CONCLUSIONSThe analysis of this data set for 760 total Master League Training + PvP battles found following drop rates:- 500 Star Dust --> 3 in 4 chance (~75%)- Sinnoh Stone x 1 --> 1 in 8 chance (~12.5%)- Rare Candy x 1 --> 1 in 8 chance (~12.5%)The chance to receive 2 Bundles is unchanged at ~8.5% even though the item pool improved with the addition of Rare Candies.​ASSUMPTIONSWins vs Losses do not matter for item dropsMaster League Training and PvP matches do not matter for item dropsThe two items received in 2 Bundle drops are independent events (i.e. 1000 Dust = 500 Dust x 1 + 500 Dust x 1)(91.5% chance for 1 Bundle) * ("x % chance for specific item)(8.5% chance for 2 Bundle) * ("x % chance for item 1) * ("x % chance for item 2)PREVIOUS RESEARCHThe findings are consistent with jeff_the_weatherman's survey that found a Sinnoh Stone drop rate of 12.5% (1 in 8). http://bit.ly/2QeJjiy original "Final Analysis" 13.9% (1 in 7) chance can be found at: http://bit.ly/2CBTqJi Data (For Reference): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ybpCf9ZWvOs0nkYWf3vT6x_w0D1xAYE9BwlCWBcZtdU/edit?usp=sharing​Drop Rates for Combined Reward-Eligible Master League "TRAINING + PvP" Battles (n = 720)CountDrop RateSinnoh Stone x 18411.7%500 Dust x 149769.0%Rare Candy x 17810.8%Sinnoh Stone x1, 500 Dust x 1111.5%Rare Candy x 1, 500 Dust x 191.3%Sinnoh Stone x 1, Rare Candy x 120.3%500 Dust x 2365.0%Sinnoh Stone x 220.3%Rare Candy x 210.1%TOTAL720100.0%​​Breakdown for Total Number of BundlesCountDrop Rate1 Bundle65991.5%2 Bundles618.5%Assumption: 1 Bundle = 500 Dust, Sinnoh Stone x 1 or Rare Candy x 1​​*** FINAL ITEM DROP RATES - ADJUSTED FOR TOTAL NUMBER OF BUNDLES (Total Bundles = 781) **\*CountDrop RateSinnoh Stone x 110112.9% (~1 in 8)500 Dust58975.4% (~3 in 4)Rare Candy x 19111.7% (~1 in 8)Total Number of Bundles = 659 + (2 x 61) = 659 + 122 = 781 Bundles​​Comparison of Calculated vs Recorded Drop RatesCalculated Drop RateRecorded Drop Rate (n = 720)Sinnoh Stone x 1(91.5%) x (12.5%) = 11.44%11.7%500 Dust x 1(91.5%) x (75%) = 68.63%69.0%Rare Candy x 1(91.5%) x (12.5%) = 11.44%10.8%Sinnoh Stone x1, 500 Dust x 1[(8.5%) x (12.5%) x (68.63%)] x 2 = 1.46%1.5%Rare Candy x 1, 500 Dust x 1[(8.5%) x (12.5%) x (68.63%)] x 2 = 1.46%1.3%Sinnoh Stone x 1, Rare Candy x 1[(8.5%) x (12.5%) x (12.5%)] x 2 = 0.26%0.3%500 Dust x 2(8.5%) x (68.63%) x (68.63%) = 4.00%5.0%Sinnoh Stone x 2(8.5%) x (12.5%) x (12.5%) = 0.13%0.3%Rare Candy x 2(8.5%) x (12.5%) x (12.5%) = 0.13%0.1%​Edit 1: Corrected Calculated Drop Rates to account for Sinnoh Stone x 1, 500 Dust x 1 as a separate possibility to 500 Dust, Sinnoh Stone x 1. Doubled the drop rate for Rare Candy x 1 with 500 Dust as well.​​​ via /r/TheSilphRoad http://bit.ly/2Hp4TBP