"Shiny rates between accounts"

#PokemonGO: I've been having this discussion on the main pokemongo forum since I feel that the counts I have are not enough yet to make a definitive conclusion but I thought I'd post my results to now and see what people think. Right now the data includes counts of Pokemon encounters like Pineco whose odds aren't 1/450 as per TSR's former analysis but for now I've left it in. The goal of doing this was to check and see if my daughter's account was luckier than mine in terms of catching shinies (I've also kept track of other things like sinnoh stones but that's another thread); it feels that way sometimes (and not at others). The output of my script is here:​http://ram.org/ramblings/other/pokemon_go/​I've kept careful track of every shiny eligible encounter in the wild since Nov 16 2018 for the two accounts, myself and my daughter's. My daughter and I play together all the time so our encounters are near identical except for things like egg hatching and incense but there's also issues of phones dying, etc. so there may be some drift but over time I expect it'll average out. I have the start positions for my daughter also logged so I could verify exactly but when I did this the first several days they were identical so I stopped doing the calculations on my daughter's account and assume nearly the same number of encounters since it takes me about 10 minutes to update my counts.​The data is not as nicely plotted as some others but it's a shell script where I record the seen numbers for every shiny eligible pokemon. There's some description of what the output of the script means but the main point is that until April 5, 2019, my daughter's account had 6 more shinies than me for ~6000 or so encounters (and our individual rates were ~1/380 vs. 1/650 even though the average rate has always been between ~1/430 - 1/480).​Over a very large number of encounters, the law of large numbers will hold so that the average per account should be the same as the average between accounts. If it doesn't, it means the PRNG in Go isn't behaving properly. Right now there's still too few encounters to say anything definitively IMO but just pointing out the shift in trends (ideally you'd like enough encounters so that each additional shiny doesn't change the rate significantly and a +/- 10 shift in the number of shinies doesn't affect the rate much).​It looked like for a while that my daughter's account was luckier than mine, I suddenly caught up (6 shinies since April 5, whereas my daughter only got one, so she hasn't been as lucky). All through the average rate between our two accounts hovered around 1/450 (+/- 30). It's just that on a per account basis, it was very different but now it is converging. So we'll see what the data continues to say. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://bit.ly/2UUmac8