"Kanto Regional Hatch and Shiny Rates. How realistic are your chances?"

#PokemonGO: The numbers are still pretty rough right now, but the Silph Research Group has some initial guesses for both the hatch rates of regionals ( https://ift.tt/2g84YGV ) as well as their shiny rates ( https://ift.tt/30bQFIJ ).Let's do some quick calculations to show the kind of odds you're looking at in your shiny hunt. For simplicity, I'll assume a hatch rate of 10% each from 7km eggs and a conservative 1 in 50 shiny rate based on our data thus far. This gives a probability of any shiny regional from a single egg of (0.4/50) = 0.8%.Here are the chances that you get at least 1 shiny regional as a function of the number of eggs hatched:7km Eggs HatchedProbability108%2518%5033%10055%20080%30091%Clearly even if you are perfect at managing gifts, egg inventory, and very lucky in receiving eggs from gifts, you've still got a decently high probability of not receiving a shiny. However, you are virtually guaranteed to see each of the four regionals at least once in their non-shiny form if you hatch north of 60 eggs.And just for fun, if you hatched 200 eggs over the next two weeks, the probability of receiving all four shinies from eggs is around 1%. Someone you know will do this, and you will hate them.This is not meant as a critique of the shiny rates or egg probabilities, merely to set your expectations and level of excitement when you do receive one. Also remember that your regional Pokemon are still appearing in the wild at the same boosted shiny rate as eggs. Happy hatching!(P.S. Any guesses as to why Happiny hatch rates have spiked this event? Accident? Or hint at something to come? via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2LJZwMd