"[Analysis] A PvP Analysis on Aeroblast Lugia"

#PokemonGO: Alright, let's do this! I won't waste your time with lyrical intros or any other teasers (beyond a header graphic. I won't go over my PvP analysis credentials... most of you know me by now as a PvP guy that writes about Silph Arena metas and GBL Cups and open Great/Ultra/Master League by now. But if not, just know this: I tear into new moves/Pokémon pretty thoroughly, but from a PvP perspective only.But there's no time to waste... let's dive in on Lugia and the crazy powerful signature move its is about to receive!LUGIAPsychic/Flying TypeGREAT LEAGUE:Attack: 103 (102 High Stat Product)Defense: 163 (168 High Stat Product)HP: 129 (129 High Stat Product)(Highest Stat Product IVs: 4-14-15, 1500 CP, Level 15)ULTRA LEAGUE:Attack: 134 (131 High Stat Product)Defense: 215 (218 High Stat Product)HP: 162 (167 High Stat Product)(Highest Stat Product IVs: 1-13-13, 2498 CP, Level 25.5)MASTER LEAGUE:Attack: 164Defense: 257HP: 197(Assuming 15-15-15 IVs)So about that bulk: Lugia is THICC. In Great League, it has higher overall bulk than Whiscash and Hypno, basically identical to Tropius and the Stunfisks, and just slightly behind Azumarill and Cresselia. In Ultra League, it's higher than things like Snorlax, Lapras, and even (slightly so) Altered Giratina, and in Master League, Lugia again outbulks Snorlax, A-Giratina, and actually just about everything I can think of. Of course, that comes with a cost, as Lugia is also notoriously light in the Attack department, also trailing just about everything meta relevant in Master League and having one of the lower Attack stats among relevant things in Ultra and Great League as well. It hangs around for a long time, but needs potent moves to deal damage. Thankfully, as we'll see soon, it has them... especially after the addition of its signature move.But before we get to all that, a quick note on the typing. While Lugia's bulk is... well, legendary, it does have some worrying vulnerabilities. It retains the standard Flying weaknesses to Electric, Ice, and Rock, as well as Psychic's vulnerabilities to Dark and Ghost damage. The only thing the two typings really do for each other is that Flying neutralizing Psychic's weakness to Bug, though they do double up on the resistance to Fighting and make that a double resistance, along with a double resistance to Ground and a single resistance to Grass and opposing Psychics.Okay okay, I know you're all here for the moves. Let's jump into what we already have AND what we're about to get....Fast Moves:Extrasensory (Psychic, 2.67 DPT, 3.33 EPT, 1.5 CD)Dragon Tail (Dragon, 3.0 DPT, 3.33 EPT, 1.5 CD)On paper, Dragon Tail looks strictly better, right? Same energy output, same cooldown even, and higher listed damage. Case closed? Not quite. Remember that Extrasensory benefits from STAB (Same Type Attack Bonus) damage, so the two moves are much closer than you might think. We'll revisit this after we look at the charge moves.ᴱ - Exclusive (Raid Event Only) MoveCharge Moves:Sky Attack (Flying, 80 damage, 45 energy)Futuresight (Psychic, 120 damage, 65 energy)Hydro Pump (Water, 130 damage, 75 energy)Aeroblastᴱ (Flying, 180 damage, 75 energy)So Lugia has long been known for its Sky Attack. It was one of the first moves Niantic gave a straight buff, long before PvP rolled around, and ostensibly with the intention of making Lugia more viable for raiding. (Really, it was to hype up Lugia raids and sell raid passes during a time that Lugia was seen as underwhelming by the raiding community, but Niantic IS a business, after all, so....) Of course, fast forwarding to today, Sky Attack is one of the better moves a Pokémon can have in PvP, tied in cost and damage with similarly popular moves Rock Slide and Drill Run (and the new Shadow Bone), and strictly better than good moves like Sludge Bomb, Dark Pulse, and Hyper Fang that hit for the same 80 damage, but for 5 more energy. It is a very good move and has, to this point, been Lugia's bread and butter whenever it has popped up in PvP (or raiding, for that matter).Lugia's other moves are expensive enough to often be unviable on other Pokémon, but with Lugia's high bulk, it has a real chance to hit them in meaningful battle situations, sometimes in multiples. Futuresight actually has one of the better cost-to-damage ratios in the game (1.85 Damage Per Energy), as a clone of recognized good move Earthquake and better than things like Sludge Wave and Hurricane (same cost for 10 less damage), and with a (slightly) higher DPE than great moves Stone Edge, Megahorn, and Shadow Ball (100 damage for 55 energy, or 1.82 DPE). I'll stop just throwing numbers at you and sum up by saying this: Futuresight is actually an extremely solid PvP move, held back mostly by being on Pokémon with moves that are very often just better (Hypno and even Cresselia now that it has Grass Knot and a buffed Moonblast) or are just too slow and/or frail to reach it (Alakazam, Swoobat, etc.). You'll see it pop on Cress every now and then, but that's really about it. Lugia is arguably the best potential Futuresight user in PvP and extremely viable to pair along with the necessary Sky Attack.However, even though it is even MORE expensive, does not benefit from STAB, and has the lowest DPE of all three of these moves, Hydro Pump is the second move you will typically see Lugia actually using, due to the extra coverage it can provide (especially against Rock and Steel types that give Lugia trouble, the former being a PITA for Flyers in general, and the latter resisting all of Lugia's other moves). The overall results between Pump and Sight are usually extremely close though. Just a quick review:In Great League, Hydro Pump gives Lugia wins over Hypno and Skarmory (who both resist Futuresight), while Futuresight loses those to beat Whiscash (barely) instead. One other caveat: Dragon Tail is not necessarily better than Extrasensory, just a bit different, with DT more reliably beating Darks and Psychics that resist Extrasensory (Obstagoon and Zweilous being the most obvious examples, but also Hypno, as DT/HP can beat it, but Ex/HP cannot) while Extrasensory (not being resisted by Fairy) is able overcome Clefable and Wigglytuff, and potentially even Galarian Stunfisk, amazingly enough, dealing very slightly more damage than Dragon Tail thanks to STAB.In Ultra League, the differences are thus: Extrasensory (with either Futuresight OR Hydro Pump) is able to again uniquely beat Charmers like Clefable and Granbull, plus (again, just barely) Swampert. Dragon Tail sets lag behind a bit in not beating those three, but getting Obstagoon instead, and is the only way it can overcome one of the Giratinas. Overall though, the fast move seems more important than the second charge move, and it seems Extrasensory MAY be a bit better overall.And in Master League, where Lugia can REALLY stretch its wings, Dragon Tail is consistently just a hair better than Extrasensory, with Dragon Tail again better handling Giratina (and other Dragons, like getting the win over Palkia) while Extrasensory, yet again, is better against Dragon-resistant Charmers, in this case Togekiss. Not surprisingly, Futuresight is better against things that resist Hydro Pump, while Pump instead beats things that resist Futuresight (and happen to be weak to Pump, in that case).But again, throughout all three Leagues, all the moveset options remain pretty close in performance, revolving around Sky Attack primarily and then with little nuanced differences most driven by move super effectiveness or not-very-effectiveness.So that's where things stand today. But in about a week, nothing will be able to stand up straight in the face of... Aeroblast.It took nearly seven months since Niantic first announced Aeroblast would be arriving in the game (right as COVID was locking down counties worldwide in March) for it to finally happen, and my goodness, does it seem like it was worth the wait!Aeroblast looks like it will arrive as both the most powerful move in the game AND with the best Damage Per Energy of any move. Let's just sit back and appreciate what that means for a moment before we turn back to sims:Aeroblast deals 30 more damage than any other move in Pokémon GO. The previous high bar was 150 damage by Hyper Beam, Solar Beam, Zap Cannon, and Giga Impact... for 5 MORE energy (80) than Aeroblast costs (only 75).Draco Meteor also deals 150 damage, and for only 65 energy, but of course then reduces the user's Attack by two stages (roughly 40%). Aeroblast, by contrast, comes with no drawbacks, and actually has a (12.5%) chance to BUFF the user's Attack by the same two stages.Draco Meteor also has a huge Damage Per Energy ratio (2.31), though even that is eclipsed by Overheat and Brave Bird (55 energy for 130 damage, 2.36 DPE) and V-create (95 damage for 40 energy, 2.38 DPE). And all of those moves come with built in drawbacks (-2 stage Attack for Overheat, and -3 stage Defense for Bird and V-Create). Aeroblast's 2.40 DPE beats them all, and again, has NO DRAWBACK whatsoever... and to reiterate, could potentially even buff Lugia further!So if you're not hyped yet, maybe this will help... the raw numbers. Because not too surprisingly, Aeroblast is a boon to Lugia in all three leagues.Sky Attack is a still a must. It is still by far Lugia's cheapest and most reliable move, and it can still win many matchups on its back alone if it needs to. But perhaps more than ever, it is critical now as the only realistic way to bait a shield and set up a big fat Aeroblast afterwards.So, with that in mind, here's what we've got:In Great League, Aeroblast represents as many as eight more wins over Lugia's previous high mark. With Extrasensory it can now beat Mantine (even if it gets totally suckered into burning a shield on a Bubble Beam and letting a big Ice Beam through) and potentially even the evil blue bunny of doom, Azumarill. (Important to note, though: Azu can flip it back depending on IVs. With Dragon Tail, Aeroblast can beat Hypno even with the nightmare scenario of Thunder/Ice Punch and Shadow Ball and Defense Deoxys with Rock Slide AND Thunderbolt, and maintains the win that Extrasensory cannot get (even with Aeroblast) over Zweilous. Either fast move combined with Sky Attack and Aeroblast beats Wigglytuff, Clefable, Thunder Ferrothorn, Munchlax, Whiscash (tanking a Blizzard along the way like a champ), and Scrafty, all wins that were basically unachievable before. And other than Extrasensory still not being able to overcome Zweil, there are no new losses to account for. Aeroblast is a straight upgrade in Great League.*Similar story in Ultra League. Again, compared to its current high bar, Aeroblast with Extrasensory adds wins against Dragon Breath Gira, Scizor, and one you would expect to always be a losing battle: Drifblim, who hits Lugia with nothing but super effective damage but still loses anyway! Even better though is Dragon Tail with Aeroblast, which wins all those plus Dragonite and Obstagoon (which are due more to Dragon Tail than Aeroblast, but still), and for the first time, Alolan Muk, yet another big beefy opponent that slams Lugia with constant super effective damage but STILL loses.And finally, in Master League, here is Lugia's current best, and here is what Aeroblast can do. It's not ALL gains, as you give up Heatran by moving away from super effective Hydro Pump, but what appears to be a loss to Palkia actually isn't, since the way to win that is still to just spam Sky Attack as soon as its available, and you get straight gains otherwise by now beating Gyarados, Kyogre, Togekiss (and this is with resisted Dragon Tails now, remember!), non-Aeroblast Lugia, and yes, even big scary Mewtwo, even the nightmare scenario one with Ice Beam and/or Shadow Ball.And there's even more. Many of those wins do rely on baiting a shield with Sky Attack and then closing it out with a devastating gust of Aeroblast. But what if we don't bait and just go for the jugular with straight Aeroblast? As expensive as it is, that cannot possibly work... can it?Amazing, it kind of DOES. Let's work backwards this time....In Master League, straight Aeroblasting still manages to take out Machamp, Conkeldurr, Garchomp (doesn't matter much what moves it's running), Groudon, Swampert, Snorlax, Togekiss, and other unlisted things you may see in actual gameplay like Haxorus, Scizor, and Shadow Gardevoir. With the speed of Extrasensory, you can additionally outrace Mud Slap Rhyperior and its terrifying Rock Wrecker.In Ultra League, straight Aeroblast can beat Armored Mewtwo, Gallade, Escavalier, Venusaur, Ferrothorn, Obstagoon (with Dragon Tail), Poliwrath, Clefable (even with Dragon Tail!), and Cresselia. With Extrasensory it also beats Shadow Machamp and Toxicroak, but in those wins it never actually connects with an Aeroblast (just grinding away with Extrasensory itself), so I don't really count those the same, but....And down in Great League, Extrasensory and Aeroblast again looks better than Dragon Tail, though yet again those numbers are inflated by Extrasensory alone being able to beat Machamp and Toxicroak, plus Venusaur and Victreebel. However, there are a couple wins that stick out. With either fast move, Lugia is able to beat Tropius (either the Razor Leaf or Air Slash variety), Medicham, Meganium, and Vigoroth by getting to at least two Aeroblasts for the win. But it also beats Cresselia with Dragon Tail and Blast, and the big, BIG prize seems to be that it can still potentially beat Azumarill with just Extrasensory and Aeroblast, no matter how Azu plays it. The same caveat as before is still there, in that IVs can swing the results, but incredibly, it seems to be Lugia's match to lose even in a battle of #1 IVs. It seems to come down to the timing of when exactly you throw Blasts and how much Extrasensory damage you deal outside of that, since as a reminder, it was a different result with Sky Attack in the equation. Suffice to say, Azumarill is, at worst, a true toss up, which is astounding for a Flyer that does not resist any of Azumarill's moves nor deal any super effective damage to Azu. That simply shouldn't happen, but Lugia is uniquely able to just out-tank one of the best tanks in Great League and outslug the blue terror bunny. Amazing.So, I could dive into various other shielding scenarios (though you can imagine the devastation that can be wrought by Aeroblast in, say, shieldless matchups 😈) and IV comparisons and such, but it's getting late in the day for most of the world, on a Friday before a potentially BIG raid day, so let's wrap it up here. I think (hope?) this has been sufficient to drive the point home, but just to reiterate for those of you that love a simple TL;DR:AEROBLAST looks to be a nearly straight upgrade on Lugia across all three Leagues. I highly recommend pursuing good ones for Ultra and Master Leagues once it becomes available, and it is well worth using an Elite TM to acquire on any Lugia you have managed to sneak under 1500 CP for Great League. Aeroblast Lugia should be an impactful Pokémon wherever available moving forward.Good luck in acquiring a good one, and hopefully you'll have much better luck than me in trading for one that fits in Great League! (I've tried like seven or eight times and NEVER had it work... two of them actually ended up random lucky trades! Grrrrrrrrrrr.)Either way, I hope this was insightful and gets you excited for the biggest, baddest move in all of Pokémon GO!I planned to try and cover the Electivire and Magmortar Community Day moves today (which got delayed by life and an unfortunately car accident midweek), but this was definitely HIGH priority when announced and took precedence. So look for the Community Day analysis on the other side of the weekend. And until then, you can find me on Twitter with near-daily PvP analysis nuggets or Patreon with an exclusive tie-in Discord server you can access to get straight through to me. My continued thanks to my buddies in my local playgroup, the MD PvP Alliance Discord, my partners and friends across many other PvP servers for their guidance and brainstorming. You all know who you are! 😉And as always, the simulated battles above from my go-to simming resource at PvPoke.com are a good start to the story, but they are certainly not the whole story. Run some sims yourself, test with A-Wak yourself, and please discuss! I always love to hear your feedback and any discussions that come out of these deeper dives.Stay safe out there, Pokéfriends, and catch you again soon! via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/31Xx0jg