"As a marketer, here's how I think the next major updates will roll out -- and why the gym rework is going to happen soon."

#PokemonGO: Background: I'm a marketer. But you knew that from the headline.We now have three major rumors floating around -- gym rework, Legendaries, and PvP. For reason I'm about to explain, here's what I think happens:June 14: Gym rework hitsJune 28: Minor revisions to new gym system roll outJuly 6: PvP hitsJuly 20: First Legendary hitsHere's my thinking:Pokemon Go's active userbase is very strong and, for Niantic, very profitable. But there's an inactive userbase which is at least 5x larger (and probably 10x) larger and, given that they're not playing, that's not making them any money. My guess is that they're looking for ways to re-engage that userbase.Further, July 6th is the one-year anniversary of the game -- the gaming and tech press (if not the press generally) is going to write about the game. As of right now, it could break either way. It's still one of the top grossing games (#24 iOS app as of right now) and has a ton of active users, but its slide in popularity is going to be hard for writers to pass up on.So, July 6th would be a GREAT time for Niantic to roll out a new feature. The question then, is, what feature? PvP is the right one.PvP is an "inherently viral" feature -- that is, a wannabe user has a HUGE incentive to spread it. Specifically, I've defined something as "inherently viral" if it's something which (a) you can't use alone, (b) the more of your friends use it, the better it gets for you. (The telephone is a great example -- it's worthless if you're the only user, but it gets better and better as more people get one.) That's not to say PvP will "go viral," so to speak, just that the feature itself fits the criteria.Imagine you're a lapsed user. On July 6th, you hear stories about the one-year anniversary of Pokemon Go and your friend asks you to try out PvP with him or her. That's a good way to re-engage an audience -- and probably Niantic's best way to re-engage an audience.But wait, there's more. The gym rework needs to happen beforehand. If you picked up the game, right now, for the first time in months, you'd find the gym scene basically a non-option for you -- your Pokemon simply aren't strong enough to last. Second, if a gym rework happened shortly after you re-engaged, you'd wonder if this game were in a state of perpetual beta, revising at whim on a too-often basis.It would make sense for Niantic to roll out the gym rework beforehand with enough time to iron out some bugs and to give us regulars enough time to understand how the gym functions. (If PvP gets us to recruit our friends, we'll also be their guides to the new gyms.) The timeline above is aggressive but gets us there -- two weeks of new gyms, some bug squashing, and maybe a week before the next thing hits. This also makes the July 6th story even stronger: One year anniversary, expanded the number of Pokemon in spring, just redid the main combat system, now introducing PvP.Next: I think, starting July 6th or maybe a few days beforehand, you also see increased spawn amounts and maybe some uptick in rares. That's not announced as part of the press push, but it's there to give re-engaging users some extra touchpoints.And then: Legendaries. Early on, catching Pikachus or finding a Charizard was awesome. That's waned, replaced first by Ditto and now by Shiny Magikarp (during the Water event, when it was rare but not insanely so). It works -- it keeps engaged people engaged. Legendaries are the next version of these. Having them come out just as the re-engaged people start to disengage could reverse that trend and lead to retention.This is all speculation, of course, but if I were the marketing lead for Niantic, that's how I'd advise rolling this out. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2rkjmVk